Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
Wind_FURY
on 08/08/2024, 05:28:13 UTC

[edited out]
I believe the longer a person has been HODLing, and the lower his/her average purchasing price - he/she would have less probability to panic. That's perhaps because of simple human psychology and experience?

Think of person who bought his/her Bitcoins last cycle with an average purchasing price of $5,000 vs. a person who bought his/her Bitcoins this cycle with an average price of $50,000.

The solution for people who panic - Cold Storage in an offline computer. It will take a few extra steps to move your Bitcoin, making you not to move them at all. Cool

I am not overly excited about your theory that the mere fact of being in profits is going to necessarily cause enough difference in the level of tension that any HODLer might feel based on BTC [price drops, since if we might go further in our example to suggest that the earlier guy might have had invested the same amount, such as $25k (so he has 5 BTC), and the later guy might have invested $25k, but he ONLY has around 0.5 BTC.

The guy with 5 BTC might feel that he is starting to get close to enough BTC, yet the guy with only 0.5 BTC might feel that he needs to continue to accumulate.  Maybe the guy with 0.5 BTC was similar to you in terms of his start date in BTC and he accumulated right around an average of about $60 per week in BTC since May of 2016.. and maybe he also made a few mistakes along the way (which you have also stated that you had made some mistakes along the way, too).

Sure both of these guys are in profits, but the profit levels of the first guy are so much greater than the second guy, and the first guy might even get distracted by whether continuing to buy more BTC raises his cost per BTC, but if he already has a practice of regularly buying $60 per week of BTC, he can still think through the matter in terms of whether he feels that he has enough BTC rather than thinking about the extent to which buying more BTC raises his cost per BTC.  

Maybe the second guy is so much close to his cost level, so buying more BTC largely just keeps him at a very similar cost level as compared to the first guy relatively speaking, yet their ability to hold and even their continued buying of BTC (rather than selling or fucking around with trading) may also relate to the kinds of goals that they might have for themselves that also might relate to their timeline in BTC and various other aspects of their cashflow management.. And surely if the later guy had also invested around $25k into BTC, but he had ONLY been in BTC for around a year, then maybe the second guy had been buying around $470 BTC per week for the last year.  and surely, he may well already be in a mindset to continue to accumulate BTC, but surely there could be questions about whether he is going to be able to continue to sustain buying around $470 per week or if he might have to make some tweaks to his budget based on various aspects of his cash management, as compared to the first guy might not feel as large of a burden to continue to buy $60 per week of bitcoin and the first guy might not even feel as much pressure to need to continue to accumulate BTC.

I suppose that I am not really disagreeing with you in any kind of meaningful way, yet there still is likely more going on in regards to the level of the conviction that each of the guys might have based partly on how they have set up their cashflow management and maybe even how they might feel about their BTC investment, as compared with other places that they could put their value or if they might even feel that it is futile to invest, and surely being in profits likely helps to reinforce the idea that bitcoin is a good place to invest, but a guy who had been investing longer might also sometimes end up getting impatient with his own desires to want to consume some of the profits of his investment.

It could be possible that at some point in his BTC accumulation journey, the first guy converted from a DCA strategy to a buying on the dip strategy.. but it also could be the case that at some point he considered himself to be out of his accumulation stage.  A similar thing could have had happened to the second guy, and surely there are some guys that do not realize the extent that they might have a need to at least go through a whole cycle of accumulation before they might transition to a new level of maintenance or perhaps to allow the incorporation of other kinds of ways of managing their BTC stash.

For sure my example of the second guy could also be wrong in the sense that if the second guy might have ended up accumulating a lot of BTC in a front-loading kind of way, and if he over did his front-loading or his accumulation of bitcoin, when the BTC price drops, he might get worried that he is losing whatever money (or profits that he felt that he had in bitcoin), yet that still seems to constitute a kind of trading and/or gambling mentality rather than an investing mentality or approach.  If the guy had a $100k investment portfolio, and he decided that he wanted to put somewhere between $15k and $25k into bitcoin in order to have 15% to 25% of his investment into bitcoin, maybe he ends up investing his money in a short period of time in various lump sums rather than DCA'ing, yet investing with the lump sums could contribute towards his being more nervous about his investment into BTC as compared with a guy who might have had been DCAing over a longer period of time.. and surely there are guys who might not have planned out their budgets very well who also might end up experiencing some level of panic if they might be using money that they need for some of their various expenses.

Of course, in earlier times, you had mentioned the ideas of locking yourself away from your BTC to make more obstacles to sell BTC, and I am not completely opposed to those kinds of ideas, yet it seems to me that we should already be able to have various mental barriers and even other systems and practice in place so that we are not having to physically restrain ourselves from selling.. and surely there are other kinds of security reasons that we might have systems in place to make it a bit cumbersome to get access to some decent portions of our coins.. in some sense there are likely some portions of our BTC stash that we are not transacting in or moving around, so there might not really be any need to access them regularly, even though we might want to check our ability to access them on a periodic basis... we shouldn't necessarily want to end up locking ourselves out of our coins by causing them to be colder than we had intended them to be.


From a psychological perspective, being in profit and being comfortable with your average purchasing price does help a person from feeling less-comfortable with his/her investment. Hypothetically, compare that with a person who recently purchased Bitcoin at $50,000 with his life-savings, then I'm confident that that person would absolutely feel ten times less-comfortable than the person who bought Bitcoin at $5,000 with his/her life-savings. Plus there's also the experience and how deep is the person's understanding which I believe also helps in HODLing Bitcoin.

But you're also right, some of it would also depend on a person's own psychology. Indeed purchasing Bitcoin using all of his/her savings does require a person to lose some of his/her mental sanity. Cool