On Monday of the market crash, there was quite a bit of volume in BTC, consistent with a capitulation.
Do you take the volume into account?
Or, despite that high volume, do you think the price could make a lower low?
August and September are bad months for BTC, your last count would fit, but I have doubts because of that high volume.
For both crypto and equity markets, the Elliott Wave structure of the 'crash' appears incomplete.
After the current bounce, expecting another leg lower, perhaps on even higher volume.