City - 3.25
Real - 3.95
Arsenal - 9.85
Liverpool - 11.10
Bayern - 12.70
Barcelona - 13.10
PSG - 16.80
It is surprising that Arsenal is higher than Bayern, Barcelona and even PSG. It is also not clear why City is considered the favorite, Real is the record holder in this tournament, although I probably agree with this, City really played better than Real. Probably in this rating I disagree only with the position of Bayern and would raise it higher.
The Champions League is still very far away, but currently there are many predictions that favor a team as champions next season, but the funny thing is that the existing predictions often make us shake our heads at this time, I think the predictions put forward by many parties are not valid without consideration and also an accurate reference for now, to be honest, it seems like they haven't learned from what happened last season when many parties favored Manchester City to win, but instead they had to stop their journey early in the Champions League.
Seeing the predictions mentioned above made me laugh and I don't know what the reason is that Manchester City is more worthy of winning the Champions League after seeing Madrid have perfect squad at the moment, Apart from that, I don't think Arsenal is better than Bayern Munich or even PSG at the moment.
In addition to all the other things you have already mentioned it is worth noting that this season the format of the Champions League is different, people have not seen it yet, teams should adapt to the new format, maybe many decent teams even. won't make it to the 1/8, who knows... The coefficients were most likely calculated on the basis of trivial probability theory, and the variables that were calculated were taken from the results of previous years, that's all.