On the moment that you would really be boggling up your mind on how this market behaves or works on which same as you had mentioned above that when it comes to volatility then its true that there's no way
that we could really be able to predict on where it would be going and this is why it would really be the reason for you to make out those predictions and guesses on where it would really be going. It would really be just that becoming a gamble on the moment that you wont really be applying any analysis into it. If you are really just that placing up your position without any basis or analysis been applied then you are just basically doing 100% gambling.Whereas, into those traders or people who do make having those kind of technical and fundamental analysis on which they are really that trying out to lessening up the risks on losing such trade.
Somehow there would really no assurance that you would really be able to make those profitable trades due to unpredictability but it would really be always best that you should really be applying
into those things on which really needs to be applied if you are really that serious on trying out to make some profit within this market.
In TA there are things that work better, like Elliott Waves, or trend definition, and defining figures may not be such a simple task, you can make more mistakes, but in any case, TA needs a comprehensive approach to take into account several tools for making a decision on the trade.
If you open a deal simply because the trader decided that now is a good time without preliminary market analysis, then I agree that this will be just a 50/50 deal, maybe you will be lucky and maybe not. It is difficult to explain in one post, for this you need to spend many hours with visual examples, but it seems to me that in the beginning, every beginner tried to make deals based on their assumptions, and not on market analysis.
Being confident in our abilities is a good thing, but we also have to know so that our confidence does not become excessive confidence, because being overly confident is also not good. We do that to cover up the fears we have. But of course we must not forget to be careful. Emotions must always be in a stable state, because if our emotions are unstable, then when we do an analysis it may not be optimal based on our knowledge and experience. Only we know whether our emotions are stable or not, because it comes from within and we can tell the difference, although it is quite difficult to tell the difference if we are not used to it.
You can be as confident as you want in the correctness of your analysis, but the market can go in the opposite direction and eventually form something else, so the ability to correctly determine what is happening on the market is already half the success. For this, you need to spend too much time with charts and take into account reading them, if there is time and desire for this, then the trader can become successful, and how successful, it will depend on the trader.