⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
By the way this is Part two of my above post, and this was the first time that the forum did not allow me to post because the error message said that my post had exceeded a 64,000 character limit.. hahahahaha..
Accordingly, this is the first time that I have been forced to split my post into two parts based on such a character limit. I am not sure if the forum changed posting rules or if this had been the first time that any of my forum posts had exceeded such 64k character limit. To avoid my sequential posts, I was going to wait until some other member were to post before posting this part two post, but you guys are too damned slow.. so I just decided to post anyhow nearly four hours between posts..
Accordingly, this is the first time that I have been forced to split my post into two parts based on such a character limit. I am not sure if the forum changed posting rules or if this had been the first time that any of my forum posts had exceeded such 64k character limit. To avoid my sequential posts, I was going to wait until some other member were to post before posting this part two post, but you guys are too damned slow.. so I just decided to post anyhow nearly four hours between posts..
Whether the forum changed the rules or not is literally the million dollar question here because if not, it is hard to believe that this is the first time you ever broke that max character limit!
Congratulations and maybe it is not only the first time for you, but the first time someone in the forum did it in general! 
[edited out]
This is a good point and while I don't know whether the majority of participants here are around because they want to learn about good ways to build their portfolio long term, I think the best that someone who thinks he is a great trader can do is to use a simulator and do some trading without using real BTC. Personally, I think that it is a BIG waste of time to be fucking around with simulators or learning to trade (or invest) in bitcoin without using real bitcoin.
I think I put this in a wrong way. I am not really a fan of using fake money either. I was more referring to the fact that those taking a simulator seriously will 95% of the time quickly find out that there is no point in trading. My point was not to learn how to trade, but to not trade at all. Bitcoin isn't predictable and some fancy lines won't help either whether they come from a guru or not. So yes, I wasn't actually recommending to use simulators in order to develop a proper understanding and learn how to manage emotions. Of course, real money is the real deal here but I hope not too many people fall for the dream that day trading makes them rich. In many cases a simulator for a week would probably enough to prove that they can't predict the price.
The thing is that I believe those with not a lot of money at their disposal should ALWAYS use DCA whenever they have a long term plan because price drops wouldn't make them nervous, shouldn't make them nervous. They can see their BTC stash grow faster when BTC drops and that is actually their goal and why they want to day trade. They want that BTC number to go up in the first place and that is what's happening when they buy for 50 USD a week and BTC dropped in price by 20%. Their BTC account is growing faster. Trading is maximum risk and usually for those who already have quite a lot of money and are willing and able to put it on the line. But there is a reason why many of these dormant whale wallets don't make a move for years or sometimes a decade. These whales might still be trading with a portion of their holdings they have elsewhere, but the big wallets are just dormant for a good reason.
Sure, I am not opposed to learning through various kinds of tools, yet I still think that people should be albe to figure out ways to learn by using real bitcoin, and perhaps liming their budget if they are going to try to trade with some of their BTC holdings... Yeah, it is a slippery slope, so people do have to learn how to control their own emotions and not get too greedy, yet from my point of view it is better to use real money rather than using fake money.
These are all good points.
For sure it is a bit problematic that so many folks end up assigning way higher values to BTC price direction movements based on squiggly lines, and even if the squiggly liines might cause a greater than 50% chance that the BTC price moves in accordance with the squiggly line projections, people still will end up taking positions that end up assigning way more probabiility than the line justifies, so in the long run, even if some of these guys are getting 9 out of 10 of their guesses correct, the way they end up putting their predictions into practice, it may well take only 1 or 2 wrong guesses in order to wipe out all of the profits that they had made from the previous 9 guesses.. .so then they might end up in a no better position than they would have been in by just buying and/or holding, but more likely they end up in a worse position than they would have by just buying and holding, especially if we play this out over years and years and years, and especially something like 5-12 years of being involved in something like bitcoin.. but yeah, so many of them still present their ideas as if they are smarter than everyone else, so surely they might be smart and they might even have a pretty high success rate, yet thy might not admit that their overall approach is not very likely to actually beat a buy and hold strategy, especially over a longer period of time such as 5-12 years.
These are not comparative examples, since many of us already likely realize that the long term accumulators, even if they end up making several large purchases at or towards the top, the longer term BTC accumulators are way more likely to be faring better than those who are fucking around with various kinds of trading...and sure there might be a few BTC traders who do better than the longer term accumulators, yet they are quite likely a pretty damn small percentage, probably less than 5-10% of the traders who are in fact able to beat a buy and hold strategy, whether in bitcoin or anything else for that matter... (especially over 5-12 years or longer) but here we are talking about bitcoin, which happens to be amongst the best, if not the best of long term investments (pristine assets), so why fuck around with trying to trade an asset that is pretty damned close to pristine even if is ongoing price performance is not guaranteed to be pristine? Yes.. the doubters likely assign to high of probabilities to bitcoin going to zero or various downside BTC price scenarios, which sure those going to zero and downside scenarios are not zero probabilities, but many bitcoin naysayers spend way too much time choosing not to invest into (or to way underinvest in) bitcoin based on overly assigning to negative scenarios and/or failing to get off zero based on upside scenarios.. and even better allocations of 5% to 25% into bitcoin, which would be better self-interested approaches to bitcoin, so we have so many (probably an overwhelming majority of the world's population) taking little to no stake into bitcoin.
The DCA route is the safe one and someone who can't refrain from trading could still do some fake trading for several months in order to see whether they are really as good as they think. I insist that it is a lottery for most people and the reasons are manyfold:
1) Hardly anyone has the time to observe markets 24/7
2) Hardly anyone has valuable insider information
3) Hardly anyone has the technology that can compete with algorithmic trading from the whales and institutional investors
4) Hardly anyone can differentiate a lucky day from a skilled analysis. Everyone thinks they are a trading wizard when they are making profits from buying and selling back and forth. That's why so many got stuck with their shit coins in 2017 as they all thought they knew what they were doing when in fact everything went to the moon for no reason
5) Hardly anyone has the discipline to stick to rules and close a losing trade because they hope for a recovery
1) Hardly anyone has the time to observe markets 24/7
2) Hardly anyone has valuable insider information
3) Hardly anyone has the technology that can compete with algorithmic trading from the whales and institutional investors
4) Hardly anyone can differentiate a lucky day from a skilled analysis. Everyone thinks they are a trading wizard when they are making profits from buying and selling back and forth. That's why so many got stuck with their shit coins in 2017 as they all thought they knew what they were doing when in fact everything went to the moon for no reason
5) Hardly anyone has the discipline to stick to rules and close a losing trade because they hope for a recovery
These are all good points.
You see all these guys on the Internet claiming to know what technical analysis they are applying in order to make safe profits. But literally all of them have been wrong and then they just use the next technical analysis gimmick, draw the line and tell the public that from now on that is the line to have an eye on.
For sure it is a bit problematic that so many folks end up assigning way higher values to BTC price direction movements based on squiggly lines, and even if the squiggly liines might cause a greater than 50% chance that the BTC price moves in accordance with the squiggly line projections, people still will end up taking positions that end up assigning way more probabiility than the line justifies, so in the long run, even if some of these guys are getting 9 out of 10 of their guesses correct, the way they end up putting their predictions into practice, it may well take only 1 or 2 wrong guesses in order to wipe out all of the profits that they had made from the previous 9 guesses.. .so then they might end up in a no better position than they would have been in by just buying and/or holding, but more likely they end up in a worse position than they would have by just buying and holding, especially if we play this out over years and years and years, and especially something like 5-12 years of being involved in something like bitcoin.. but yeah, so many of them still present their ideas as if they are smarter than everyone else, so surely they might be smart and they might even have a pretty high success rate, yet thy might not admit that their overall approach is not very likely to actually beat a buy and hold strategy, especially over a longer period of time such as 5-12 years.
I know that trading is tempting because as long as you are running well, it is quite fun. But I am not aware of anyone who built a big BTC position from trading daily. See how the experts have different opinions. You have Michael Saylor who would always tell you to buy right now and you have other big gurus who tell you that BTC will drop to 30k. It's all a question of personal interest.
These are not comparative examples, since many of us already likely realize that the long term accumulators, even if they end up making several large purchases at or towards the top, the longer term BTC accumulators are way more likely to be faring better than those who are fucking around with various kinds of trading...and sure there might be a few BTC traders who do better than the longer term accumulators, yet they are quite likely a pretty damn small percentage, probably less than 5-10% of the traders who are in fact able to beat a buy and hold strategy, whether in bitcoin or anything else for that matter... (especially over 5-12 years or longer) but here we are talking about bitcoin, which happens to be amongst the best, if not the best of long term investments (pristine assets), so why fuck around with trying to trade an asset that is pretty damned close to pristine even if is ongoing price performance is not guaranteed to be pristine? Yes.. the doubters likely assign to high of probabilities to bitcoin going to zero or various downside BTC price scenarios, which sure those going to zero and downside scenarios are not zero probabilities, but many bitcoin naysayers spend way too much time choosing not to invest into (or to way underinvest in) bitcoin based on overly assigning to negative scenarios and/or failing to get off zero based on upside scenarios.. and even better allocations of 5% to 25% into bitcoin, which would be better self-interested approaches to bitcoin, so we have so many (probably an overwhelming majority of the world's population) taking little to no stake into bitcoin.
It is a minority and the issue is that you can't even tell whether a part of that minority simply got lucky or not. If someone used some of these platforms that offer leverage and a gambler got it right with 100x leverage and turned 100 BTC into 10.000 BTC, I don't consider that person a genius trader. It was luck. There is a reason why shorts get wiped out on a regular basis. It's gambling.
As for people being hesitant because of all the downside risks they see, my impression is a bit more positive as I know people who bought BTC where I never thought they would. Some in their mid 50s, even 60s, and often times they don't fully understand the technology behind it, but they slowly but surely get this idea why it is very likely to be around for a very, very long time. Lots of people are changing their minds for the better, but it is of course still true that the vast majority is still skeptical although only a very tiny fraction of the skeptics could tell you in a few easy words what bitcoin is about. They are still in ignorance mode. But I am convinced that with time passing by, more and more people will either voluntarily learn about it, new generations grow up with it as if it has been there forever, and some people will learn the hard way when one day they ask themselves why their fiat can't pay the same amount of stuff it was able to pay 10 years ago. It's already happening and the number of people approaching me asking about bitcoin did certainly increase over time.
But one thing holds true: most people can't resist selling back and forth when they get started with bitcoin. Stories when someone sticks to a plan from day 1 are quite rare.