The only secret that you should know is buy the dips (Bitcoin dips not altcoins), once you see a big dip in the market be rest assured that there will be a pump.
You are right but it is good to know that the market can be deceiving, although not frequent but possible that after a big dip the market will show sign of increase. After the market increase a little, the price of the coins will start to fall again even more than the last dip. Especially the altcoins, we need to be very careful if them.