I have a theory that retail may not ape in this cycle as much as they did in the last one.
Last bull run we had covid boredom (people sat at home with nothing to do) + a LOT of stimulus = a lot of new money flowing into crypto, especially alts.
I don't really think that government stimulus contributed massively to the bull run last season. Statistics showed that most of the stimulus checks people received were spent on basic needs like food and other bills. Only a few percentage of these stimulus receivers invested in it.
This time we have the institutions of course, and I don't underestimate how big that could be for Bitcoin this cycle (although it could be more "slow and steady" than face-melting gains).
But it feels like retail are still licking their wounds from the last cycle and less likely to join the fun time round.
What do you think?
I think for BTC it doesn't really matter too much, but for alts we might not see the kind of returns everyone's expecting.
I am not aware of research that has studied the behaviour of Bitcoin retail investors in the current circle, it would have been helpful. The focus this period has been on institutional investors but retailers are observing the market and taking advantage of available opportunities. But I think the most attractive altcoin investment now is telegram shitcoins. And most of them have proved to be worthless.