[edited out]
Didn't my reply carry investment and not trading? So I know and I stand with what I said, Bitcoin of today needs smartness to earn from it and not the former usual ways when it was still younger when many people were lucky to own it, the liquidity must be considered, who are those that will be pushing it higher and higher like before? It will take time for that to happen, and that is if it would not frustrate the investor before happening.
And if it happens, it won't be business as usual, Bitcoin will find it difficult to rise, so replicating such former huge successes will be difficult with this current status of the coin,
to even hit the next x3 from this level might take more than 10 years, is that what I will be waiting for? Think of it, this year alone, if you've carefully invested and divested your Bitcoin at the right time and reinvest it again when you confirm a clear bullish path at a lower price, won't you earn more than HODLing it? I don't follow the majority, I conduct experiments and work with experience, the future of Bitcoin is very sketchy.
Of course, any of us should be wanting our bitcoin to outperform the debasement of the dollar, so that any price appreciation that we experience is putting us into a better position than we would have had been in some other possible investments that might also get debased along with the dollar.
So these days we can frequently get deceived by nominal returns and not actually realizing that our real returns might not be as great as we thought that they were once we take into account of the dollar.
Frequently in traditional investments, there is a kind of expectation that they might at least nominally double every 10 years, yet these days since the debasement of the dollar is becoming more and more obvious, 2x or 3x might in 10 years might not even quite keep up with such debasement of the dollar.
Yet, I doubt that the solution is trading, even though you think that you can increase your bitcoin returns by selling with expectations of buying back cheaper, and sure maybe you personally are able to accomplish such, yet are those skills transferable and replicable and you are not even espousing any specific system, except maybe you are wanting us to subscribe to your trading newsletter for the latest happenings and to be able to learn how to trade as smartly as you.
Sure, we all know that there aren't any guarantees in bitcoin, so it is quite possible that bitcoin won't even increase in value in the next 10 years, but those seem to be less likely scenarios, and the ongoing debasement of the dollar, there are expectations that the sound money nature of bitcoin is going to continue to attract investment into it, based on Gresham law considerations. Also if you account for both historical and expected ongoing s-curve exponential adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects (
outlined by Trace Mayer), there are surely quite ongoing upside scenarios with bitcoin in the ballpark of 10x to even 100x or more in the next 10-ish years, even though not guaranteed, those are within the realm of possible outcomes that continue to justify both an accumulating and holding technique rather than trading one of the best (if not the best) of assets currently wide-spread available to people around the world.. with still levels of adoption that are likely to be barely 1% of the world's population investing into bitcoin, currently.
Those who accumulate and hold bitcoin for the next 10 years or more will likely be in a decently good position. An overwhelming majority of those who fuck around with trading will likely fair worse than the accumulator/hodlers, but yeah time will tell, and surely there will be some traders (such as you perhaps?) who might be able to outperform an accumulation/hodl strategy. None of them are guaranteed, which is also part of the justification for figuring out a position size that is sufficiently comfortable both financially and psychologically.