I wanted to chip in something here. The $1.4M bet to win $12K is often very likely but you'll only see people with a huge amount of fund playing this kind of bet. Someone once told me that overly rich people don't need plenty odds to be profitable in gambling. With just a small odd, they can stake extremely high and get some good returns. The problem with this strategy is that you need to win between 10 to 150 times to get the same capital back. In the case of this gambler, he needed to wina bet with 1.01 odds 116 times to get back his initial bankroll.
And you didn't mention, or forgot to mention "with exactly the same amount of money, same odds, same risk, same everything", and that brings up several questions, and some of such questions are..
- 1. Does this gambler in question still have up to $1.4 million dollars to continue making this type of bets?
- 2. Let's assume he has it, do you really think its possible for someone to bet and and consecutively win on 1.01 odds for 116 times without losing any of the bets in-between?
If you ask me the number one question, I might have to choose to be on the positive side and say yes, maybe the gambler still have much more of that $1.4 million dollars, but if you ask me the second question, I did tell you that it's totally impossible to bet 116 times and win all the 116 times without losing any of the bet in between, regardless of how small the odds is.
Aha, it's my bad actually. I'm assumed the amount implicitly when I made that reply. However, I want to say that winning those 0.01 odd game that amount of times is not impossible. Rather, It is quite possible. The only problem is that it would take a very long grind to make it possible via carefully curated bet selections. Those are the kind of odds that given 100 instances, 95 will almost certainly follow through. I'm not the best gambler in the game but really profilc gamblers can do it.