The idea of investing no more than you can afford to lose is the same as making sure that you are investing within your discretionary income and not using money that you need for expenses. Also bitcoin is not guaranteed to be successful, so everyone should realize that he could lose up to 100% of what he puts into bitcoin. Surely no one invests into bitcoin (or anything else) or even engages in trading with any intention to lose, yet they still need to account for the possibility that they are not using money that they need for their expenses whether expenses in the coming month or two or even expenses down the road.
That’s true eventually as, the idea of how Bitcoin investments should be approached and I agree on the not having a 100% guarantee on it but, it has some guarantee none the less, especially when compared with the many altcoins out there. Bitcoin has more proven guarantee then the lots of them, deeply rooted in its price history and how it’s carried despite many critic and attacks.
You are saying that bitcoin does not have a guarantee, but it does.
There are better ways to say such things, without using the word guarantee or suggesting such guarantee.
Bitcoin is an asymmetric bet to the upside, so like I mentioned the most you lose is 100% of what you invest, while at the same time, there are a quite a few upside probabilities that could play out, including that bitcoin could well end up appreciating 1,000x or more greater than gold, even though bitcoin is currently ONLY about 1/15 of gold's size (referring to market cap), so yeah, bitcoin's adoption continues to go forward in terms of the Metcalfe's law and the various network effects that were
outlined by Trace Mayer. Bitcoin has also been described as a power law distribution.
** **Bitcoin Power law proponent Giovanni Santostasi interviewed by Robert Breedlove on the What is Money? (WIM) podcast.So there likely is something that is more assured about protocol building that causes its future to be on a course that is within a pattern of historical performance that will cause it to continue on such trajectory.. Yet, any of us should still realize that the future is not guaranteed, whether it is bitcoin or anything else.. and yeah, there are probabilities of certain outcomes in the future, and some outcomes have higher likelihoods of playing out as compared with other outcomes, yet the mere fact that some outcomes have decently high probabilities of playing out still does not make them guaranteed or that we should be proclaiming that they are guaranteed or close to guaranteed. In the end, you can express your ideas however you like, even though I think that it is misleading to use such phrasing to state that bitcoin is guaranteed or close to guaranteed or to imply that it is guaranteed when talking about bitcoin.
I have tried to understand from almost many of your threads that you have always prioritized having a surplus of real assets or floating cash which is important and positive for managing long-term bitcoin holdings. Also recommended to keep investments flowing down the road which must work positively for every investor.
I have frequently suggested that folks need to invest into bitcoin within their discretionary income, and that if they are newbies to bitcoin, then there is no need to start out by diversifying assets, and in that regard, they can start out by investing in ONLY bitcoin and cash, which means that they could build up their bitcoin investment and their various back up funds (such as emergency fund, reserve funds and float) at the same time that they are building up their bitcoin investment. I doubt that I have ever suggested for newbies that there would be any need to invest in other assets or properties prior to building up bitcoin holdings, and surely if folks come to bitcoin and they already have other investments, they would have more options than a person coming to bitcoin who had never had much of any investment and/or savings previously. Personally, I believe that it is more common for bitcoin newbies to either not have any investments/savings than to have other investments and/or savings and if they do have other investments and/or savings their other investments and/or savings are likely to be fairly limited, but if they have them, then they would take those other investments/savings into account in terms of their bitcoin strategy.
In essence I can take into account that the best decision for an investor to accumulate bitcoins is going to be much more valuable to him than any real valuable asset. I am pretty sure that investors who are already gradually accumulating bitcoins to build their portfolios to a decent size and if the portfolio is 2 years old or more will be more attracted to bitcoins than other assets. Although it depends on the amount of Bitcoin deposits whether it is really decent size or within 1 year many people's portfolio can be relatively decent size. After that time he should be more aggressive towards accumulating bitcoins than other assets.
Each person has to figure out his own situation in terms of whether to invest how to invest and into which assets to invest (such as into bitcoin or anything else), and each person will be responsible for his own assessment and measurements regarding how to go about it.
You had been suggesting that there was a need to diversify into real assets and supposedly income earning assets before investing into bitcoin, and I was largely claiming that I consider that your claim is likely not true, potentially counter-productive, and there surely are plenty of scenarios that a person (a newbie to bitcoin) could start out with just investing in bitcoin and saving in cash and then consider whether to expand into other investments at some later point down the road. Individual factors are likely to differ, and they should be attempting to tailor their own approach in accordance with their individual factors (I describe
9 individual factors in another thread).
Recommended for new investors to follow a different policy which is a part of disposable income he will continue to accumulate Bitcoins and run continuously until his portfolio is of a decent size and can continue to increase the size of floating cash to meet urgent needs so that the family has no difficulty meeting expenses. However, the higher the amount of cash funds, the more aggressive the investor can be in accumulating bitcoins.
Sure. The more back up funds, then the better position a person can be in terms of aggressively investing into bitcoin, so there likely are always going to be competing interests for the use of disposable income and how to prioritize the use of such disposable income, and surely having more back up funds and even higher levels of investment into bitcoin, then there could be personal choices about whether to add other kinds of investments to the holdings or whether to just continue to build the bitcoin holdings. There is no need that they have to do in any particular order in the event that they have priorities to buy a property or to create a cash generating business for themselves, yet they may still have to account for the tradeoffs that are involved in each of the choices, including as we have many times discussed in various threads about how some people might be in a stage of their lives where they do not earn very much money (or they are not able to earn very much money), so some of these low income earners might be in a better situation to use their resources in order to either get job training and/or to get work experiences that will increase his income, and so these particular people might be better off to use resources to invest into themselves and their own skills rather than buying bitcoin with that money, and each person has to figure out his own various balances.
No one wants to lose their investment in bitcoin, infact everyone is 100% sure that their investment will yield profit in the end, but we should not forget that bitcoin is an unpredictable and volatile assets, it may or may not go well.
You are contradicting yourself.
People invest into anything, whether bitcoin or anything else, with an expectation of profits, perhaps concluding that their investment has greater chances of gaining value as compared with losing value, yet they likely also are not going to invest into things that are either difficult for them or that they believe are ONLY slightly greater than 50/50, so they attempt to pick investments that have relatively high odds of doing better for them as compared with if they had not invested.
Sure, people may well not be able to put any kind of exact number on what probabilities that they assign to bitcoin versus some other thing that they might invest into, and they might not even be locked into their assessments.
It seems to me that if people become 100% sure that their investments will yield profits, then they might end up unrealistically taking chances, and sure some folks get out of the dilemma by considering that they are 100% sure, but it is just a matter of their not knowing the timing, so sure, we can try to frame our expectations of price performance in terms of quantity of price performance or in terms of a timeframe that the price will reach such levels, and surely it becomes nearly impossible to know both beyond an estimated assignment of probabilities that odds are good that BTC prices will go up rather than down and we are better off by investing into bitcoin as compared to some other place that we could put our value, even though 4-10 years or longer down the road, we might discover that we would have been investing into some other asset.
Each of us should be attempting to do our best with the information that we currently have, and we choose our BTC position size (or the level of our aggressiveness) based on some of our expectations of BTC's future price performance, including that we don't want to become so aggressive that we end up spending beyond out disposable income or that we have not sufficiently prepared ourselves for some shortages in our future income and/or some increases in our future expenses.