Head to head, Arsenal is always superior to Tottenham. Even in the last two seasons we have seen that Arsenal have never lost to Tottenham. The last time Tottenham managed to beat Arsenal was in the second half of the 2021-22 season. And yes, since then it has been true that Arsenal have always won when playing at Tottenham headquarters. So favoring Arsenal against Tottenham this season could indeed be the best choice. Tottenham's quality at the start of this season was also not as good as Arsenal. but as usual, because this is football, surprises can always happen.
If you look at the history of these teams against each other on Tottenham's pitch, you will see that for Arsenal it is not the best place to score points, and although this has changed for the better for Arsenal in recent years, you should not take it for granted now. Because it is a derby, and as you said in a game like this, anything can happen. Like in the match against Brighton, the red card changed everything against Arsenal, and they had to settle for a draw. Tottenham are also far from their best times, but this does not mean that they cannot take points from Arsenal.