The average cannot be done like this, the spin has 4 types of prizes:
1) common (15/50 Sat/Points/Tickets)
2) uncommon (150-500/1500-5000 Sat/Points/Tickets)
3) rare (1/5/50 Golden tickets)
4) special (500$ giftcard, Iphone, Rolex)
Point 4 has an extremely rare probability, it is like winning a jackpot of a national game/lottery.
Point 3 has a probability of about 1%.
Point 2 has a probability of about 3-4%.
Point 1 is the one that comes out with a probability of about 95+%, of which as said 1/3 are tickets.
So we need to calculate a weighted average of point 1, with some exceptions of point 2 and extraordinary 3 and 4.
Those probabilities are not accurate. To get an uncommon prize, there is a 1.1% probability if you include lottery tickets, without tickets it is 0.6%. Another thing is that even if the uncommon prizes have a low probability they still made up a proportionately higher amount of your rewards in the beginning. The 5000 prize is 100x larger than the base prize but the odds were initially much better than 1/100th of the base reward’s odds.
That is from 1/83rd to 1/125th of the investment.
If the annual returns had been 1/125th at the beginning, nobody would have invested in something where it might take over a century to recoup that investment. Regardless of how you want to calculate returns, becoming a premium member is something that currently requires an extremely long time to reach any meaningful ROI. These slow and steady returns should not be unsustainable but perhaps there are other costs which we haven’t been factoring. FUN isn’t a token they created themselves, it is something which they paid to acquire. Promoting and developing the token also have a cost and they might have taken significant losses from all this.