You have not yet learned your lesson from your waiting to buy in October 2023 (around $27k) when you were waiting for lower $20ks that did not end up happening? Another thing is that historically, the 200-WMA is o.k. to use as a measurement when we finally get back into a bear market, yet we are still currently in a bull market, so you might be being a bit too greedy when you are holding back so much waiting to get close to the 200-WMA that may well not end up happening until much later... and yeah, I will concede that whether we are in a bear market or a bull market tends to be a lagging indicator, so sometimes, we can end up getting back into a bear market and perhaps the touching on the 200-WMA could be a sign that we are back in a bear market.
Ser, you're nit-picking. Why do you choose October 2023's price point when EVERYONE had a GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY to buy the actual DIP under the 200-
Weekly SMA from
June 2022 to March 2023. That's almost ONE YEAR of continued opportunity, THEN the price DIPPED under the line again during August 2023.
Sure we could use August 2023 or even a year ago, yet what is significant about October 2023 is that there were quite a few people (including you) who were expecting and cheering for down and saying that you could not buy BTC because you were waiting for more down.. Yet, in October 2023, the BTC market turned and the price pretty much shot up from $26k/$27k-ish and went all the way up to $73k in March 2024.. so yeah, a lot of the folk, probably including yourself got left out on that stepladder .. and we likely are not going back down anywhere close to those kind of prices.
And, your waiting strategy and fucking around with holding BTC hoping for more down before up may well end up with similar kinds of results in current prices.
Maybe that works for you, yet I even have my doubts if your waiting strategy has been working for you, and hopefully not too many newbies, or even guys in their first cycle of BTC accumulating are following such a waiting strategy rather than just figuring out ways to ongoingly, persistently and consistently buy within their budget, and maybe after they make it through a whole cycle or cycle and a half, then maybe at that point they can reassess whether they might need to (or want to) adapt their BTC accumulation strategy to incorporate buying on dips (and possible waiting) rather than mostly focusing on ongoing BTC accumulation that does not incorporate waiting strategies that might cause them to end up buying less BTC than what they would have had otherwise.
This is actually once again translating into time in the market > timing the market. I mean sure somebody will always get lucky and then argue that waiting was the superior choice, but then false conclusions could be drawn because that person might think it was smart to wait. Instead it was lucky that it turned out to be successful. As your example describes, those hoping to go down from 26k to maybe 15k only to then see BTC go to 73k probably learned their lesson.
Another question is if someone has a weekly budget (DCA), but instead decides to wait for some mysterious reason that BTC could go down further, will that person be disciplined and put the budget aside to accumulate a potential lump sum for a later entry point? Will the weekly budget during the waiting period be consumed for other, irrelevant stuff?
That's why time in the market could outcompete timing the market even at seemingly unfavorable prices. If someone says they invest $100 per week only if BTC goes below 40k and they don't invest for 10 weeks because it took until then for BTC to go below 40k, then the question is whether the money is still there that was supposed to be invested into BTC via a DCA method. If instead that person bought $100 BTC all the time and it went sideways, but now goes to 65k, it is still a gain of a little less than 20%.
I am a strong believer of the "time in the market" approach. And this perfectly goes hand in hand with DCA. The only question someone has to answer for themselves is whether they believe in the technology and its long term potential or not. All the number crunching as to how much the return would be if instead of 55k someone enters at 40k is a waste of time. Again, the August 2023 - March 2024 example is only one of many.
So far, time in the market + DCA held true. Of course you could always zoom in on a time window and see that it did not work out, but that's kind of manipulative to your own detriment. Truth is that BTC with its up and downs performed extraordinarily well. And after all, even if BTC does not go to the moon within a year or two and someone is accumulating all the time, there is is still valuable BTC in the wallet.