It may or may not be. Mbappe haven't won the Champions league despite how far he has come in his career so winning their UCL with his dream club, Madrid will be on top of his priority list for this 2024/2025 season. But unlike everyone else that have rushed to conclude that Madrid would win, I think they wouldn't and will be knocked out in one of the knockout stages — my bias will remain this way unless Madrid's performance turns around in the near future because right now, it ain't shit.
So who's on my list to win it? Can't say but there are good options especially teams like City and probably Bayern or Leverkusen + Liverpool.
My wish to Mbappe is Good Luck, I hope he didn't just make a right move at the wrong time because the three straight performance is out of it and fans keep demanding very high expectations from him which is why it's seems like he isn't doing enough, though his performance also dropped generally before he even made a move to RM.
At the same time I will support your specu... if they continue like this they might not even make it through the group stage and even if they do, they just gonna get knocked out at the next stage, imo I still think Beryern is gonna perform better this time around or we could just get surprised with the new format.