5) Some things are bigger than Bitcoin.
It's even possible if Trump wins that despite a friendly crypto policy, things turn out bearish or harmful for Bitcoin due to bad decisions in other fields of politics.
An example could be international tensions intensifying because of bad decisions in foreign policy, may it be in the Middle East or regarding Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Or in general protectionist measures leading to a commercial conflict, above all with China.
International tensions have often led to significant Bitcoin dips, even in recent times. The reason is actually quite simple: if the world looks unsafe and unpredictable, you won't be so much interested in a risk asset investment. It's even possible that the Ukraine war intensified the 2022 bear market due to this effect.
That's of course only a possibility. It can also turn out that a possible Trump tenure becomes bullish for Bitcoin even if such bad decisions create damage to the US and/or the world's economy. It's not impossible that people will view Bitcoin increasingly as a
gold alternative as its success doesn't depend that much on economic activity as stocks and other traditional assets. However, we currently seem to be far away from that outcome, a downturn on major markets still often influences Bitcoin's price negatively like we saw in the August Nikkei-induced dip.
Will you believe if I say that the government invests lots of money and creates bots to spread the misinformation? They even pay people to post good about the government. [...]I believe that Trump will have bots all over the internet and some of them might be on this forum too. There is a chance for Trump to gain some % of votes by promoting the fact that Bitcoin will rise if Trump becomes the president. In some families, kids might push parents to vote for Trump for this reason, some Bitcoin enthusiasts will vote for him to gain profit on their investments and etc...
In my country political bots are also a rampant problem, regardless the political party (there was a government change in 2023), all governments in charge since 2012/13 or so, and also several opposition parties, invested a lot in bots, above all on X/Twitter.
It could of course be the case that such bots could intensify FOMO in the Bitcoin community in the case Trump wins, and thus the price can indeed jump to the upside. However, if no substantial policy changes which benefit Bitcoin adoption occur afterwards, then this jump probably will be short-lived.