I agree here. So basically your model is valid for the "growth phase" in adoption, and when we approach saturation we have simply to accept it breaks. I also agree that it is difficult to predict how high the percentage of global savings could be in the "full adoption" scenario. And of course Bitcoin can fail.

I think we can agree that we're searching for a formula responding to the question: "how can I time the market if the price behaves a bit like in the past and Bitcoin does not fail."

However, if we use a more conservative formula, then it is possible that we can predict the price growth rate a bit longer. We would still have a model backed by yesterday's data. However, in my opinion it would make sense to concede more weight to the later price data than to the earlier movements: The market is only slowly maturing, and thus the early movements until 2013-15 can be explained more by chance, short-term sentiments and external effects (e.g. MtGox bankruptcy) than the post-2015 (approx.) data which gives already more hints about the steepness of the adoption curve.

I'm interested on this because I would not like to see something in the next 2 years already similar to what happened to Stock-to-flow, which was corrected every year, and has now probably broken completely.

For this reason, I'd like to ask you a particular question: what's your reason to use the natural logarithm (base e) and not another function? Did it "just" seem to fit with the "straight line", or is it based on another theory, e.g. some kind of "natural" exponential growth?

I've re-read the first page and while you discussed an alternative with Tubartuluk based on "days ahead", I've not seen the answer to this particular question. So if you want you can explain this here


Thanks for doing that "alternative" calculation! I'll look into that possibility too.