Newcastle United welcome league leaders Manchester City at the St James stadium on Saturday on what will be the first English Premier League game of the weekend. With 6 games played, Eddie Howe's Newcastle are just three points behind Manchester City who occupies the first position. So my question now is do you think Manchester City will easily get all three points at Newcastle or do you expect the home team to get a good result against the reigning champions?
Unfortunately, I am not given the ability to see the future
But I'm only interested in one question: are the bookmakers offering good odds? At the moment, the odds for this game are as follows:
5.30 - 4.30 - 1.60
+60% for an away game against a good team? Definitely not.
I think it should be 1.7-1.8 minimum. I don't really want to bet on Newcastle either, but if I'm right, they are seriously undervalued.
The odds of City must be more than 1.9 or 2.0. And i will consider it fair. This is because they get fewer advantages compared to Newcastle. They lost their best CAM and DM. They also play away at St. James' Park. Their schedule is busier than their opponent's. Their players are probably exhausted.
And as you said that, 1.6 is too small for City. But there may be a reason why bookies gave City smaller odds than our expectation. It's probably due to the awful performance of their opponent (conceded 6 and scored 7 goals).
All in all, 1.6 is still worthy enough to bet, considering they have a greater chance of winning with a narrow score.