I feel that Real Madrid will win this derby because their performance is indeed better than Atletico Madrid. Their front line is indeed not at its best yet, but from what I see they are on fire and are quite productive so far. Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid have looked shaky in their last 2 matches. They could only draw against Rayo Vallecano and although they managed to get a win against Celta Vigo afterward, but they didn't really dominate the game. Atletico Madrid were quite lucky that Celta Vigo did not have a good finishing touch.
I think this is a troublesome match for both teams, although theoretically Real Madrid is more favored. In terms of consistency, both are also not much different, only 2 points apart, which indicates that Ancelotti squad is slightly better. However, Atletico Madrid will benefit from playing in front of their own supporters, besides that Mbappe absence is also another advantage for Diego Simeone squad. Head to head meetings between the two teams in the last five meetings, Atletico Madrid recorded better statistics, with 2 wins, 2 draws and one loss. Barcelona will benefit if this Madrid derby ends in a draw, because it will widen the points gap a little.