The quality of Atletico Madrid players also cannot be underestimated and they have a pretty big chance with Real Madrid's current situation, but the second layer or reserve team owned by Real Madrid is also not much different from their core team, and here lies their advantage by having many talented players to replace their starters when injured, Ancelotti made this scheme very well, yes you are right ATM will win if Madrid's performance is not as usual.
Diego Someone has never lost, they only get a lot of draws which makes them in third place in the standings.
I'm not being worried over this game at all, over real madrid wining the match, and despite Atletico Madrid current form and home advantage in this game, Real Madrid got all it takes to defeat ATM, if they come out fully to play, ATM may have in their plans to try to draw this very game but won't help it out when they are face with much pressure from the real madrid frontline players, Vinicius jr and Co, They won't even be able to contain goal pressure coming in .
The alternative that can be taken for such a position is to hold the match until it ends in a draw, of course sharing points is the best choice from the loss, but I think they will see the situation of Real Madrid, whether the absence of some players will be the same or unlike performance before -before, if you have the best play style even with some replacement, ATMs might take that step, but if not, the ATM will make a fight and make Madrid uncomfortable at home and be defeated by them.
The match in a few hours and I thought it was more associated here, because its position was also quite possible the two teams would not be aggressive with the situation of each team.

Look at the odds available here on the stake.com platform, both of them are more than 2 and this is enough to make speculation that both have the possibility of winning, but for me the series is more likely.