Wouldn't it be better to use general numbers instead of specific ones? e.g. 12-18 months after halving and like that. While I agree that the next bull would probably be in 2025, I actually have no idea what month specifically and how long it would even last.

Still, I'd take into account other events in addition to what OP said. I'd say OP is like a general guide based on history? And honestly, what OP said can technically be "logic" already imo. Just one based on history, which is iirc a part of technical analysis, compared to fundamental analysis that analyzes future trends.