Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Buy Buy Buy or Sell Sell Sell?
by
JayJuanGee
on 01/10/2024, 19:52:53 UTC
long term and investing is likely 10-20 years or more, yet frequently we refer to 4-10 years and above in order to include the possibility and consideration that there might be some people who might have shorter time-frames due to their age or their health or perhaps some other kind of life event that might cause them to have to sell in a shorter timeline..
You explanations are okay @JayJuanGee but talking about age as one of the factors that can lead to an investor deciding to sell their bitcoins earlier than expected,

I am not saying that age causes a person to sell bitcoin earlier than expected, but age could be a factor that affects whether or not a person has at least a 4 year timeline so that they would be an investor rather than a trader, and sure they might still be willing to trade, but it becomes risky for anyone to try to trade less than 4 years, even though people may well be willing to take those kinds of chances, which I also would consider to be gambling rather than investing, but people  do those kinds of things, yet if someone is really unsure about being able to have enough resources, they may well not want to get into trading with money that they pretty confident that they are going to need in less than 4 years.

don't you think it will still be a good idea for someone who is quite old to pass the long term goal to their offspring instead of selling

We cannot decide to others the extent to which they value saving for their off-spring versus saving for themselves, and if they have a lot of extra money beyond their own various basic living needs, then they may have the luxury of saving for their off-spring rather than themselves, yet if they are also having trouble just making ends meet, then they may well be better off to make sure that they are in a good position rather than worrying about their offspring.  Off spring might also be in a better position than their parents, so it is not even necessarily true that offspring are going to be in some kind of a desperate need for the money of their parents.. beyond maybe they might not want their parent to leave them with too many financial burdens. 

I am surely not going to claim to know how folks might want to prioritize, and there are even many folks who want to try to spend all of their money during their life without spending it too early.. or outliving their savings/investments, so it tends to not be easy to strike any kind of universal balance, and surely elderly folks reach differing levels of wealth by the time the die and differing kinds of familial relations or heirs that they might be ready, willing and able to pass their wealth.

Now I understand more better why 4 years is considered as long term for holding bitcoin investment. I had never considered age and health as a factor that could influence how long some investors could hold their bitcoin. And you are absolutely right, because an old investor who is already 80-90 years old wouldn't want to hold his investment for as long as 20 years, because at that age such investor could die at any time due to his age. So in essence people that fall into this category tends to hold bitcoin on a shorter duration. So you people who are fit and still have a reasonable number of years ahead of them should be the ones holding bitcoin from 10 years and above to actually see more profit from their investment.
Well, if you invest in real estate or property, four years is considered a very minimal period as people would buy property for a decade or more and will always want to hold for as long as possible. The same goes for Gold and other investments, but when we talk about bitcoin investments, people find it hard to hold 4 years and that is considered as a very long time. I find this behavior very strange and the reason for this is that it is expected that bitcoin and crypto investments give a lot more return in quick time, that may not be possible in reality.

Hopefully you are not investing into shitcoins or considering shitcoins to be an investment rather than a trade. .and also to be careful regarding how much shitcoins you are holding and considering any of that crap to be an investment rather than a trade, which it may or may not be successful as a trade, rather than just getting involved in bitcoin and mostly staying out of shitcoins, except maybe in very limited ways for some guys who cannot resist gambling, then maybe those guys should at least limit their shitcoin exposure to less than 10% the size of their BTC holdings while considering their shitcoins to be a trade rather than a long term investment.

because if he decides to sell due to old age it will still return back to Fiat that has low monetary value when compared with bitcoin so it will not be a good idea to sell bitcoin and still return back to keep Fiat again, it also makes me to think why someone who is quite old will consider to just invest within 4 years interval (just an assumption), what if at that time the price of bitcoin falls will they sell at lost just because of their age?

Part of the reason that they would not be investing into bitcoin if they have less than a 4 year timeline is because they need the money.  They are not necessarily getting back into fiat, but instead using fiat for their living expenses.  Frequently elderly people have difficulties with no longer being able to earn money and if the money is continuing to be debased then whatever money they have is not going as far as it had gone in the past, so surely it still may be a good practice to convert into cash from their investments as they need the money, if they do not have a lot of options for various investments and the amount of their investments are running low, then they are depleting their principle rather than merely drawing income from whatever investments they have remaining when they get into their final years, while at the same time not being sure how long that they might live or if they might suffer from additional physical and/or mental ailments with folks who may or may not be ready, willing and/or able to help them with their living.

If an investor decides to sell their bitcoin within a short time frame due to health issues it's understandable but yet keeping emergency funds for such situation in the future will be best instead of selling except the health challenge supersedes the emergency funds before selling their holdings to attend to their immediate challenge will become an appropriate decision.

The keeping of various amounts of back up funds in cash can differ if you are talking about earning income from working versus merely earning income from various kinds of investments that a person has, and there may be some choices in regards to which investments to spend first when a person gets into a situation in which some of his income streams might be drying up or if he is depleting various investments that he has.  If he already has bitcoin then bitcoin remains in the mix of various investments and potentialy choosing of which investments to deplete first, and so surely many of us would like to be in a position where we can just live off of our various investments without having to deplete them, so that still ends up showing how impractical that it might be for anyone who might already be in a stage of depleting investments to be adding any new investments or reallocating investments, even though I could see that a person might have some property or even investments that he converts into bitcoin since he think that bitcoin will hold its value better and that it would be easier to cash out slowly from bitcoin while mostly letting the bitcoin investment ride as compared to some other investments that might either be less liquid but also might not be as likely to appreciate in value as much... yet even with all of those kinds of considerations, there still would be needs to account for how much time a person expects to have before starting to draw upon the investment.

Let's take example of a person who sold a $300k house and bought bitcoin with it.  There could be circumstances that such person owning a $300k house successfully sells the house and puts the value into bitcoin, and maybe they have some other sources of income, but if they bought $300k worth of bitcoin right now, they may well get around 4.8 BTC, and maybe they could still withdraw around $2.5k worth of bitcoin on a monthly basis for an indefinite amount of time, and surely if their living expenses dictates that they need to withdraw higher amounts, then they might start to overly deplete their BTC, so their withdrawal rate would no longer be sustainable if they are trying to withdraw more than the amount of BTC would be able to sustain.  I am not saying that I know the right answers, so people have to figure out a balance that works for them, and sometimes they do get to such a bad financial, health and/or psychological situation that there might not be a whole hell of a lot that can be done to improve their situation.