Shower thought. If there was a person who would start a debate and tell me that Bitcoin's price today is "too high", I would argue back that, although Bitcoin's price might be "too high", it might also be mispriced towards the lower extreme of the cycle. The market hasn't truly priced in the Halving, AND the true nature of the Bitcoin spot ETF.
But we can see the proof of that in a simple chart. Research Gold ETF - when it started, then look at the Gold chart after
it started.
But we can see the proof of that in a simple chart. Research Gold ETF - when it started, then look at the Gold chart after
it started.
When Bitcoin was created some people didn't believe Bitcoin would grow this big in price so yes Bitcoin price is high but not too high,
Surely part of the challenge for anyone, and maybe even moreso for a bitcoin newbie, is trying to figure out the extent to which BTC prices might be high or not.
The newbies.
I'm very confident that those people who sold at a $50,000 and lower price level will be the same people who will FOMO during the next major Bitcoin surge. But they will FOMO in for less units of Bitcoin because they will be forced to purchase at a higher price level. Although some of them might buy a shitcoin to chase Bitcoin's surge, merely a small amount of those people will actually chase it. - 90% of them will lose MORE in units of Bitcoin.
But I'm also confident that, like me, learning the hard way will turn some of them into Bitcoin HODLers.
Frequently, we learn best through experiences, and so some people take several times before they learn, and others learn more quickly. Some folks sell, and some folks fail to buy, and some are waiting for more dip, and so maybe they can be buying BTC in the lower $60ks, and they may or may not get lucky if they are waiting for mid to lower $50ks, and folks who are brand new to bitcoin or maybe who have ONLY been in bitcoin for a year or two, if they have been ongoingly buying bitcoin, then they are likely going to be better off than those folks who are waiting for dips that may or may not happen.
In my personal opinion, those people who are just starting to accumulate today should take this compression as an opportunity to DCA, but also pay attention in the new narrative that "World War III" is starting in the Middle East. THAT will probably give everyone another opportunity to buy lower than $60,000, perhaps lower than $50,000?
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Of course, BTC prices have been largely going up for the past two years, so they might have a false sense that we are at or near a top, which does seem to be problematic thinking even though we cannot guarantee $100k or more in this year or even in 2025, yet it still seems that newbies are going to be better off if they either start stacking if they have not been or to continue stacking if they have ONLY been building their BTC stash in the last couple years, unless they were able to front load their investment to reach their investment target. The circumstances of longer term investors might be more complicated, especially if we might have had been into bitcoin for more than a whole cycle. Some are still buying regularly and ongoingly, others are buying on the dip, but some need a certain amount of dip before they buy more.
Bitcoin has been in compression since March, the expansion that I'm most confident will come, will be unbelievable for newbies.