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Chelsea drew their last match. Aston Villa, on the other hand, have drawn their last two matches. And that's why these two teams are lagging behind. Personally I think these two teams will not be able to compete for the title. But even then, if Chelsea and Aston Villa can strengthen their defense, then maybe these two teams can compete for the title. But it is less likely.
I consider Liverpool as the favorite to win the title so far. Because Liverpool's defense is very strong this season. Liverpool conceded only 2 goals in 7 matches. Even a strong team like Manchester City conceded 8 goals in 7 matches.
I agree with your first point, Chelsea and Aston Villa cannot compete for the title this season, but maybe they can increase the competition and become title contenders with their performance starting to improve.
Chelsea is starting to aim for more wins in each match, while they are still not stable. Chelsea's goal productivity is starting to improve although I would prefer to see them play stronger on all linea. The defense is not too bad, but if Chelsea can strengthen the defense, then the chances of losing are somewhat reduced. Being in 4th place in the standings is certainly good for Chelsea, but they are prone to slipping because of their unstable performance. Aston Villa threatens because they have the same points, but Aston Villa is also not too different from Chelsea.