As for ETH to surpass BTC then there's no way that we could be able to cross out that kind of possibility as this coin/project is really that sitting next to it but of course it will really be that hard to believe
that this could happen considering that the entire community doesnt really like specially on high transaction fees on which this is mainly the complain of people when dealing up with erc20 on which
gas is really that too high. Bitcoin is much more lesser as we do observed, there might be some spike on fees on some time but it doesnt happen all the time.
Maybe the answer is clear enough from your explanation for OP and others to know. The Gas fee in ETH is also a classic story until now and is recognized as still expensive by many users. I think this is enough to prove that ETH is still no. 2. For the type of question asked by OP, I may not know how many times I have read it and it has been explained that it is still very different in terms of price or others.
No doubt explanation is enough with gas fees is also having huge impact but one more than which we need to understand use case which is now having good advantage for the bitcoin because things are getting positive day by day and bitcoin is having much strong use case which is helping for increasing price and Ethereum is having nothing in this case.
While now, we are having few coins which can bring Ethereum down as well because few are predicting Solana and USDT both can overtake Ethereum even few are predicting about BNB is also having good chance so for me it's also not case for the Ethereum to go above Bitcoin due to use case. But one more thing which is also always in every cryptonet mind it's unpredictable market and things can take changes drastically, so anything can happen at the end.