It seems that we should not speak in terms of absolutes, even though the lower the BTC price the less likely that we are going to end up revisiting that, even though nothing is impossible in terms of either a low spike or even some kind of an issue that could end up happening.

Personally, I like to think about bottoms in terms of the 200-WMA (which is the bitcoin average trade volume price over the past 4 years), and historically we have not spent very much time below it.  However, between June 2022 and October 2023, we ended up spending quite a bit of time below it, and at one point, the lowest point was right nearly 36% below the 200-WMA (which was $15,479 on November 20, 2022 when the 200-WMA was then $24k).


It's not non-zero odds that bitcoin prices could go to zero or even somewhere into really low prices, yet at the same time, some people come off as retarded when they are talking about outrageous price moves and assigning anything even close to high probabilities for such scenarios (Edited: yes I see that SuperBitMan fixed his comment, yet I have already written my post and I see no reason to change my post) if something has way less than a fraction of a percent of happening, then why the fuck should we be referring to those kinds of outrageously down scenarios as if they were anywhere close to realistic.

Yeah, sure each of us is free to assign probabilities in light of how we see matters, and we might not even agree on how the probability assignments are reached, but still there are degrees of acceptability to suggest that something like sub $1k to be within less than 1% odds or to suggest that the odds are greater than 10%, and perhaps folks are even conceding that odds are less than 1%, but still spending time talking about such scenarios, as if they were something important to discuss... and sure something sub $1k probably would be sub 0.1% odds.... if even that high... so it seems crazy to refer to such a thing, except just in passing..

It is almost like we should consider those folks as trolls if they are referring to such low probability events without putting reasonable qualifications on the way they are talking about them... as if they do not even know the probability, and just randomly treating low probability events as if they were equally likely to occur as some higher probability event... Even when we start to get below the 200-WMA, which is currently close to $40k, it starts to get unreasonable to even expect those kinds of lower than $40k  prices to happen, even though they might have odds in the 10% to 20% arenas of taking place in the coming months, yet since the 200-WMA continues to move up more than $30 per day, by the time the BTC price goes back below it (perhaps in late 2025 or even into 2026), then it may well be $15k or even $30k higher by the time it is getting tested again.  We cannot exactly know when we are going to have ups and downs or when we go from a bull market to a bear market, even though it still seems that we are currently more likely in a bull market than in a bear market, even though the labelling of what market we are in is a delayed indicator so frequently we will not know that we changed from bull to bear or even from bear to bull until several months after it already happened.


I think that each of us should consider our position size in such a way that accounts for both going to zero and also very negative BTC price performance, and that is part of the rationale for the expression to not invest any more than you can afford to lose - yet at the same time, we need to be considering the whole spectrum of possible outcomes that include that it is quite likely that bitcoin is going to continue to go up in value in 4-10 year or longer timelines, even if in the short-term there are a lot of battles and perhaps even some unreasonable corrections and/or failure/refusal to go up... so we still need to figure out our position size and how aggressive that we are going to be in our bitcoin investment.. since there surely are going to continue to be events (and maybe even talking points) that attempt to convince us either to not buy bitcoin or to sell what we have, and if any of us is not able to figure out what to do in terms of the size of our BTC stash, then maybe we should not be holding BTC and we should find some other investment that helps us to feel MOAR better, including having fun staying poor, which likely is going to be the result of a lot of traditional investments that are so much vulnerable to the ongoing and seeming debasement of the dollar and other fiat currencies around the world.. that affect the currencies and also affect the various assets that are also subject to the ongoing debasement of currencies.


He is largely correct, but the use of absolutes is problematic...so rather than proclaiming that it cannot, perhaps thinking in terms of odds that are way less than 1% would be more realistic, even though sometimes people seem to have trouble expressing themselves in ways that do not use absolutes...


The idea of an asymmetric bet is that the most you can lose is 100%, but there is way more upside, and bitcoin remains one of the best of asymmetric bets to the upside, but you still have to figure out your position size so that you do not get recked in the process of making such bet.. so your bet still has to be realistic in light of your own financial and psychological circumstances.