You are right to some extent but as an investor I don't think it's necessary to think about the characteristics and factors that leads to Bitcoin up and downtrend I mean these are what traders are suppose or ment to do not investor. Investors main focus is to accumulate and hold for a long period of time so definitely there will be a downtrend but the uptrend will always supercede the downtrend within this interval of 4-10 years so you see it's not necessary to look at...
I may not understand what you mean by speculation are not just mere guesses but as much as I know, speculation are not always 100 % certain or guarantee even though much analysis is been carried out and been close isn't what we are looking for and that still sounds like a trading term. Even though no one knows when Bitcoin is going to stop existing but I believe it won't... anytime soon so why not invest and hold instead of looking or thinking of speculation that is not sure.
The most important thing in bitcoin collection is that it is not the price that needs to be looked at because in the end when we only look at the price, your view will become more different because there will always be a situation where you expect a lower price to buy so that you do not buy and end up lagging behind in the purchase that should have been made in the first place. Don't get too hung up on temporary prices because in the end when we want to be around for a long time then it is clear that the current price does not mean anything considering what we are aiming for is not today or tomorrow or next week but a few years or even longer than that.
As for the issue of speculation it will not be entirely correct because speculation is clearly only 2 possibilities but even so when talking about bitcoin then this is not only based on speculation but about their history and the progress that bitcoin has made so far so by looking at the previous situation (over the past decade) then the hope to make this more than before is clearly very large and even we can see that throughout the year the progress continues to be large even we have reached ath again and again. So by looking at this of course future progress will clearly be more than that even though we don't know what will happen in the future but we certainly believe that the less supply the more demand will also increase