Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
A nice price action... 
Yesterday, Ben Cowen showed the last three halving years..in all three it was pretty much up only from Oct to Dec.
If politics cooperate, it just might happen again.
I had the most 'pleasure' during one post-halving year, though,..2017, when it ripped from around a thou during spring all the way to almost 20K late in the year.
THAT was unbelievable.
Now, I don't feel like we have any clue as to what might happen, albeit MSTR declined today after an initial pop.
Maybe it would cool off for a bit, but bitcoin can still rip up regardless.
Is 3-3.5X possible? You betcha... with 7X-possible in a rare case of confluence of many factors that could appear paradoxical, initially.
IMHO, the giant rip up in 2017 was based on the fact that bitcoin successfully fought off the cabal that tried to tame it by imposing a larger block size (needless to say that "the cabal' was supported by largest corporate players at the time).
Can bitcoin fight off something now when it seems to be progressively integrated into the fin system?
Maybe..., but only in a case of a bond market "hiccup", which I do not wish for.
Imho, apart from that, it is difficult to see 7X from here in a short order..., but by 2028..sure.
Yesterday, Ben Cowen showed the last three halving years..in all three it was pretty much up only from Oct to Dec.
If politics cooperate, it just might happen again.
I had the most 'pleasure' during one post-halving year, though,..2017, when it ripped from around a thou during spring all the way to almost 20K late in the year.
THAT was unbelievable.
Now, I don't feel like we have any clue as to what might happen, albeit MSTR declined today after an initial pop.
Maybe it would cool off for a bit, but bitcoin can still rip up regardless.
Is 3-3.5X possible? You betcha... with 7X-possible in a rare case of confluence of many factors that could appear paradoxical, initially.
IMHO, the giant rip up in 2017 was based on the fact that bitcoin successfully fought off the cabal that tried to tame it by imposing a larger block size (needless to say that "the cabal' was supported by largest corporate players at the time).
Can bitcoin fight off something now when it seems to be progressively integrated into the fin system?
Maybe..., but only in a case of a bond market "hiccup", which I do not wish for.
Imho, apart from that, it is difficult to see 7X from here in a short order..., but by 2028..sure.
I appreciate most of your post, but still:
1) no link for the Ben Cowen charts? You must be slacking. You expect us to have to Google search for that charts / presentation that you could have had easily provided?
2) Why are we talking about 2028? don't we have to go one cycle at a time? Wouldn't you consider that we are still in the midst of a cycle? So you are suggeting that from here we get something in the ballpark of 3-3.5x (which yeah is $180k to $230k-ish) and then we correct back down to some place (maybe $70-$90k or perhaps we don't break back below $100k, yet that would be difficult to believe if we ONLY get up to upper $100ks or lower $200ks.. or maybe some other place? and then after we spend a bit of time consolidating in the sub $100ks and perhaps evenin the supra $100ks (but lower end), then we make another run for UPpity that would bring us up into the $360k to $500k price territory by 2028-ish? Maybe 2029? Those are somewhat bearish scenarios that seem to presume the disappearance of blow off tops, and surely we seem to have had experienced a somewhat stifled blow off top in 2021, yet does that really justify the disappearance of blow off tops in bitcoinlandia?
Are you really buying the mainstream media and/or perhaps the status quo financial pundits proclaiming that the various tools that they are putting into place - connected to bitcoin are going to be successful in terms of "taming" our lillie fiend? I am not opposed to the idea that such a thing could happen, yet I am not going to buy tame/stable as if it were a base case scenario and that blow off tops have disappeared (gone extinct) in this here asset class, which I remind you is not like any other asset class known to man, and likely is still in relatively early stages of adoption, which suggests that dee cornz is still a very immature asset class, even though from my perspective (for whatever that is worth?) you seem to be presuming some level of maturity within it.
Sure you might end up being correct, yet I would prefer you wipe that smugness off your face.. hahahahhahaha.. and get serious about dee cornz.
Look in the mirror at least 5 times per day, and repeat some kind of mantra: "I am going to stop being whimpy in regards to my bitcoin assessments and my bitcoin-related actions." Then try to do what you say and say what you do. You will thank me later. If you had not noticed, that is a protip.
...and who is being 'lazy' here, huh?
But....here it is: https://youtu.be/_aRjoXDneBw?t=1765
"smugness off my face"...that's personal, lol
that said...it was funny..
I am not being anything about bitcoin, but just hodling and if that indicates some wimpiness, so be it.
Not going to be doing in-out (with bitcoin, haha).
Personally, I would be quite satisfied with btc at 200K.
In this sense, I am longing for $1 mil btc as anyone else might, but realize, that I might not have enough time to observe btc reaching those hefty goals.
Hence the possible conundrum between wants and means.