The Bitbo volatility index, which shows the Bitcoin price's volatilty over 30 or 60 days, has grown a bit since 2023, but still it hasn't reached a value similar to earlier bull markets.

30-day-volatility:


60-day-volatility:


The current value is at 1,7 for the 30-day volatility and 1,78 for the 60-day volatility. And the record low still is from 2023, when the 30-day value fell to 0,77, similar to the value of gold.

The only bull market when similar values were achieved was the late crypto winter 2015/2016, when prices started to rise again. But as you can see in the graph, the volatility back then spiked regularly to 4 or even 5%. This is not the case in 2024 anymore, we only saw briefly 3% in the 30-day volatility in August, after the dip down into the 50k area.

I think this is a good sign, we're only one or two steps away to bring volatility down to values when Bitcoin could become more interesting as a currency or unit of account. Gold is currently at 0,5-1%. This is the value we'd like to achieve, even if probably there still will be some spikes to 2% for a long time.