Scroll TGE have absolutely nothing to do with the fact that ETH might have a bullrun though, scroll is just another layer 2 solution, there's also nothing worth nothing of this blockchain except that it's gonna be the same as other blockchain.
moreover, been hearing some bad news about their TGE anyway over the twitter, I don't think the TGE reward will also be that much, at best it will be few dollars to hundreds, the reward is diluted, the scroll mark is also diluted, last time I remember they also give scroll marks to some defi protocol address, you can guess what would be the result.
You aren't far from the truth. My experience with Puffer confirms your assertion but I still feel listing at a good price will also detemine how good the tge would be. More allocation and poor listing price makes it a dust but it will be a good start if it can list above the current pre-market price ($1.42) I am seeing on Bitget.