That’s kinda underestimating Inoue's challenger and overhyping Inoue. He was -6500 against Doheny, which means like a 98.5% chance to win. So yeah, you might be right about that one. But this time, he's up against a better opponent with a solid ranking, so maybe it's more like 90% -- still pretty high. 
As for me, I believe Luis Nery is a better boxer than Sam Goodman, as Goodman has not fought outside his home country, Australia. While an upset is possible, I think it’s a very slim chance given Naoya Inoue’s talent and the fact that he is still in his prime.