⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
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What do you base your estimate on for Bitcoin price to reach $80-90k this year? You cannot just rely on one factor that because there are many people holding bitcoins, the price of bitcoin will definitely increase in the near future. I agree that the value of an asset is determined by supply and demand, but we need more catalysts than that if we want bitcoin price to rise. We cannot expect bitcoin price to increase when the world economy is unstable due to war, inflation...and that is exactly what we are experiencing. Bitcoin is unpredictable and it all depends on the impact of the economy. I know people are relying on the past to make predictions but I do not rule out the possibility that the historical scenario may change.
To me, it sounds like you Marvell1 are not really very well prepared for UP.. just in case..
That is your choice, and through the years, I have seen it over and over and over with folks proclaiming the top is in and the top is not going to be very much and blah blah blah.. Those guys too busy naysaying bitcoin and failing/refusing to sufficiently/adequately prepare for up. Thereafter, many of them have regrets because either they sold too much too soon or they failed/refused to buy even close to as many BTC as they could have had bought.
Sure, even relatively whimpy investors are going to end up doing way better than the no coiners, yet it seems that there are so many folks who are smarter than the bitcoin investors and those of us who are mostly accumulating bitcoin, including investing in relatively aggressive ways. \
There are ways to invest into bitcoin fairly aggressively without going overboard, yet no one can really advise specifics in regards to how aggressive is enough.. whether it is 5% of income or 25% of income that goes into bitcoin or some other amount.
Of course, we are also limited by our discretionary income, so we cannot invest beyond our discretionary income by using money that we need for our expenses, so no one is going to really be able to measure how much is enough to be investing, just in case we might not be able to get these kinds of BTC prices in the future and there is a certain comfort to having had been able to accumulate BTC at lower prices in order to have more cushion in the cost of our BTC relative to its spot price value.
It could be true that you might be able to relax Marvell1 since you have been registered on the forum for as long as me, so perhaps you have already accumulated enough BTC, and since even relatively modest levels of accumulation, yet I look at your post history, and I see that you seem to have spent a lot of time fucking around in shitcoin sections of the forum, so it surely could be the case that you still have not even yet figured out bitcoin after all of these years registered on the forum, and you still keep buying into bullshit narrative of shitcoins, and you cannot get yourself out of trading and/or gambling practices rather than sticking with BTC.
Even if you just think about yourself.. even a fairly modest investment of around $50 per week over the past 11 years, you would have had invested around $29k and you would have accumulated more than 23 BTC. That surely would not be a bad place to be.
To get $50 per week, add up the two below $100 per week examples and divide by 2:
1) $100 per week between December 2013 and November 2022 - $47k invested and 46 BTC accumulated.
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2) $100 per week between December 2022 and present -$10k invested and 0.3 BTC accumulated.
Hopefully whatever you have been doing in the past 11 years in regards to fucking around with shitcoins, trading and/or gambling has at least matched some variation of the great price performance of mostly accumulating and holding BTC... which you seem to continue to be pooing the value of such bitcoin focus, which causes me to speculate that you likely have not had a very good investment portfolio performance over the past 11 years as compared with how you could have had done with bitcoin focus with a buy and hold strategy, yet you still seem to have had not learned your lesson from such ongoing doubting of dee king daddy cornz.
I like the term of an "arithmetic bet". It says it all. Do I believe that it is more likely for BTC to go from 70k to 35k or from 70k to 140k? I am not saying that a downtrend is impossible, but if I had to make the choice right now or someone shoots me in the head, I would go with 140k. If we say that the lower boundary is zero and the upper boundary is undefined, there clearly is asymmetry to the advantage of the investor in my opinion. If I put in $1,000 now, what's the worst that can happen? It goes to zero and this is extremely unlikely, albeit not impossible. But do I really care when BTC goes to 50k? Not really because I didn't invest thinking that from here the only, and very only way is up. But in general the chances for it to go up outweigh the chances for it to go to zero by far.
In my personal opinion, I would rule out the possibility that we every go below 30k again unless a major unforeseen comes into play and I give that very little chance. Hence, it works like a mental insurance that in my worst case scenario, I would still be left with close to 50% of what I have put in. Is this worst case scenario worth it to be prepared for the best case scenario? Absolutely.
If someone told me to flip a coin and I lose half my investment if tails comes up, but I gain an unknown multiplier from 1x to Xx if heads comes up, I would go with it. Predicting anything for a timeline of 6-12 or even 18 months is pretty much wild guessing. That's why I like charts like this one where you can see whether the real guys are more or less accumulating (with some deviations of course) or whether they are unloading like crazy because they think bitcoin has no future. All these charts are very stable, it counts for all wallet sizes.
Sometimes some people take profits, sometimes whales might as well consolidate wallets or as well split them up because BTC has become more valuable and they want less BTC to be sitting in one wallet. But in general the graphs look stable.