Post
Topic
Board Italiano (Italian)
Re: Un modello logistico del prezzo di Bitcoin
by
BTCdragosfera
on 30/10/2024, 08:22:38 UTC
Niente di originale.
Sigmoidi descritte da Perenod.

Ho gia' usato nel mio articolo nel 2013 il modello logistico. Sei un po' in ritardo amivo mio.


https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/21pujs/bitcoin_compared_with_metcalfes_and_zipfs_law/


Used the empirical data of unique addresses as a function of time.

Fitted a logistic model to the data in 1) with only one free variable (number of final users)

Fitted with a linear regression model the data points in a log-log graph with price in the y axis and users in the x axis. Derived a power law with a power if 1.45 by measuring the slope.

Used this power law and the logistic model to predict the price.

Calculated how well the model fits the empirical trend of price vs time and obtained a highly statistical significant value.

Plotted as a comparison what one would obtain using Metcalfe's or Zipf's law. They don't fit very well at all. Bitcoin law is in between these two (power of 1.45).