Bitcoin is a different kind of asset compared to other traditional money and asset in the stock exchange where we can easily withdraw our profits whenever we feel like. Because of the volatility nature of Bitcoin its a difficult to know when the right time to hold or sell. From my study the price can go up a lot in value, but it can quickly drop down, So, the dilemma is; Do we wish to hold onto our Bitcoin with the hope that it will rise in value or do we to sell some of it when we see some gains, especially when the market looks very shaky in the eyes. Since holding simply means we can get more in the future, but can also risk losing some profits if the price falls.
The main challenge here is balancing between taking advantage of Bitcoin’s potential for growth while managing the risk of price drops and figuring out when is the right time to cash out or make moves without getting hurt by market swings. This is where the long term benefits comes over the short term quick gains. I can say for an investor who has invested up to 10 to 15 years he can take some little profits if he has things that are important to do. He can completely cash out if he is satisfied with the investment growth and profit and perhaps chooses to shift into other opportunities.
I find analogy with trade as you say. When you plan for the long term, the ups and downs in Bitcoin prices won't affect your investment. Your retention period will be around 4 years-12 years or if cycle is calculated it will be at least 1 cycle or more. But I personally prefer 3 cycles or longer. If you buy regularly with a 3-cycle or 12-year holding plan, you won't be affected by the ups and downs in Bitcoin prices or volatility in the Bitcoin market. Because after 3 cycles I think there may be a big difference between the average buy price and sell price of your bitcoins.
If you are planning to sell bitcoins for a small profit for a living or a temporary gain that is not set in time, then the volatility of the bitcoin price may affect you and you may lose a lot from now on. You may be interested in hoddling with the idea of temporary gains, where you will be able to build a much larger portfolio and Bitcoin is more likely to give you better returns. If you are not patient enough to hold for long then you can plan alternatives, where you have less chance of losing.
The way we see Bitcoin right now or the volatility we are experiencing with the ups and downs of the market is actually a medium at work here is the trend of short term investing. By short term investment we mean days, weeks, months. Bitcoin is volatile so you may miss out on good returns if you proceed with short-term investment guarantees. For example I think suppose current price of Bitcoin is $80k and its duration is 4 years then ($80k*4) ie $320k again one cycle -12 years then ($80k*12) ie $960k or more. I think bitcoin investors should wait until such a cycle time.
And if it is not possible to support the family then you can hold for up to 4 years, and if that is not possible then you have to give up bitcoins at low price from which you can lose a lot.
Holding Bitcoin should be planned for the long term so that you can insulate yourself from the charisma of market price ups and downs and at the end of a cycle you can enjoy a huge return that can be a boon to fulfilling your sky-high dreams.
The trend that you mentioned for example in Bitcoin cycle price increases does not seem to be correct. Maybe Bitcoin halving doesn't increase Bitcoin price as you mentioned. However, it is true that all bitcoin halvings in bitcoin history so far have increased the price of bitcoin. According to the history of Bitcoin, the first Bitcoin Halving happened in 2012, after which the price of Bitcoin increased dramatically. Also this year 2024 is the fourth Bitcoin halving in the history of Bitcoin even as the price of Bitcoin has risen to an all-time high this year.
Observe the history and explanation of Bitcoin halving here.