~Snip
In a big match like this, home and away are not too influential, although of course Chelsea fans will dominate every stand, and Arsenal are not a team that does not have a mentality. So this match will still be tight and fierce, both teams will certainly play very carefully so as not to make fatal mistakes.
It's just that if you look at their performance last week, both got different results. Chelsea drew with Manc United at Old Trafford, while Arsenal lost to Newcastle. After that a few days later both also got different results in the European arena. Chelsea managed to win a landslide victory over FC Noah in the Conference League, while Arsenal lost to Inter Milan in the Champions League.
So after looking at the performance in the last two matches, it seems that Chelsea will be very favored in this derby match. Chelsea will certainly play with their main starting line-up, although this cannot be guaranteed. However, seeing Arsenal's motivation which is currently slumping, and Odegaard has just recovered from injury, so it is likely that he will not immediately return to his performance, so I dare to bet on Chelsea's victory in this match.
Apart from team performance, I think another thing that will influence a team's probability of winning is whether it is away or home. The home team will usually get a slightly higher probability than when they play away, this can apply to the Chelsea vs Arsenal match. If in this match the probability of Chelsea winning at home is 35%, then it is possible that Chelsea will get a 30% probability of winning when they visit the Emirates Stadium.
Home advantage cannot be ignored in big games. Chelsea have bounced back and have proven their worth this season, so playing at home should give them even more confidence in securing victory. Even though Arsenal tends to be the favourite, I think Chelsea are better now. Things could have been different and Chelsea could have won the match even though Arsenal were favourites.