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This outcome looks like easy money. It is hard to believe that Real will drop points at home to Osasuna after they lost heavily to Barcelona and Milan. To be honest, I expected a victory over Milan with about the same justification, but still, Osasuna is not Milan, so this outcome seems predetermined.
Madrid is indeed more favored in this match against Osasuna, especially since they are playing at home, but if you look at Real Madrid's recent performance, it is very doubtful that Real Madrid can win this match. This season, Osasuna has performed better than the previous season.
And seeing that Atletico Madrid only has a one-point difference with Real Madrid, so no matter what, Real Madrid must be able to win this match to catch up and secure its position in 2nd place in the standings.
How Osasuna performs is irrelevant because the gap in class between Real and Osasuna is such that Real will always be the favourites. I'm sure that no one in Real is thinking about how to "defend 2nd place from Atletico", firstly, Atletico is 4 points behind (Real has a game in hand with the worst team in La Liga), secondly, only the title and the ticket to the Champions League are important. There is no difference between 2nd and 4th place.