One funny (and potentially ironic) thing is that there truly are people who wait until the confirmation of the upswing in the price before they buy, and sure maybe some of those folks are just trader mindset, since it seems difficult to understand why to engage in that kind of thinking with the kinds of assets that have been confirmed to have fundamental value, such as bitcoin... since in a lot of senses, it does not even matter when you start to buy bitcoin, except maybe just buying bitcoin as soon as you find out about it, so long as you determined that you are buying bitcoin with your discretionary income
To me as an investor the only when one can only focus on the dip before accumulating, is if the folks has already, gotten far with his investment, which may stop him from been aggressive as he used to , but still some are just folks with traders mindset because only those that just want short-term profits will always waste their time waiting for the dip and most time they usually miss it because you can't just sit back, monitoring the market all day , as a human you still have a life to live outside this space .
What else are we assuming to be factors with these two types of people? How old are they - perhaps relating to how much time they are going to need before they might need (or want) to start living off their bitcoin? Do they have an income that provides for a sufficient amount of discretionary income to invest into bitcoin and establish and maintain back up funds, especially the emergency fund? Have they already established their emergency funds and do they otherwise have good cashflow management that they are maintaining? How much time are they spending studying bitcoin? when did they start with bitcoin? Do they have other investments?
We could have similar kinds of people, yet some might be more inclined towards trying to trade/gamble than others, yet I have difficulties justifying trading to generate an income, yet there could be situations in which that might work and someone might have skills that are somewhat beyond my own abilities to imagine how they are dealing with their finances, time and energies.
It is almost like I need to hear what your hypothetical person (or two persons) might look like in order to relate to what you are saying, since surely there are so many kinds of people who have so much variance in their situations.
Not really development.. but early adoption that is ongoingly building as awareness increases and price increases, the whole network becomes more and more valuable which contributes to the price continuing to go up.., so in that sense, the early stages like we are still in continues to have prices way smaller than what it going to be as it is continuing to be expanded.. .. yeah, maybe we have 1% adoption and even a lot of the current adopters may not even realize their level of being low coiners
That's true development stage sounds somehow , rather bitcoin is still on its early stage, so there's time to invest on it and hodl.
I think that bitcoin is still in its early stages, yet to me, development stage sounds as if it is not quite ready for prime time, and personally, I believe that bitcoin was built so well from the start that it was something that just needed to grow with adoption, which bitcoin has been doing in something close to a perfect kind of a way, even though surely nothing really can be perfect, but there have been ongoing building of bitcoin as it grows, like the analogy that we frequently hear about a plane being built while it continues to fly - even though maybe there is a little bit of a better analogy than that, since bitcoin is more like a team of planes that continue to fly in tandem and/or coordinated like a flock of birds.
Than to keep procrastinating and waiting for Bitcoin to crash (which may never happen) , so Bitcoin still early stage and those with the long-term perceptive, can still start their accumulation.
Surely bitcoin is still in early stages since adoption is still quite low, and bitcoin is likely to continue to be volatile, yet there is almost no way that we can presume down before up rather than up before down, so there seems to be advantages in terms of getting started right away, since there is no way to prepare for up unless already having a stake and building a stake, and surely if we are able to have an investment timeline that is at least 4-10 years or more, then it likely is not going to matter so much whatever our costs per BTC, but just that we keep building our BTC stash, and the sooner we start building the better, since it is likely that the BTC price is going to continue to go up, yet it is going to almost inevitably going to remain volatile and likely one of the better ways to measure its ongoing upwards trajectory is to use something like the 200-WMA to see that it is ongoingly going up at least in terms of the 200-WMA even though its spot price is likely going to continue to bounce up and down around the 200WMA.. and perhaps continue to mostly average staying around 25% or more higher than the 200-WMA, even though sometimes the BTC spot price might end up going greatly above the 200-WMA or it might go below the 200-WMA... even though it is likely not very sustainable to stay below the 200-WMA for very long. BTC spot price versus 200-WMA can be looked up and monitored at
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy, and as I type this post, BTC spot price is right around $90.6k which is about 120% higher than the 200-WMA (which is nearly $41k).
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Jay's said it all, those who have to monitor the market to know whether it would drop or rise are likely to be traders who trying to embrace the concept of Bitcoin investment but are still stock with the trading mindset else why would they even be considering if it would rise or not,
Aren't we presuming that with the passage of time that the BTC price is going to continue to rise, yet we cannot necessarily that the BTC spot price is going to rise or fall in the short term, even if we might realize that there is a kind of ongoing and ever-present pressure upon it to go up in price that comes from its ongoing adoption (including that we are in early stages of its adoption too).
Bitcoin has proven to be very profitable on the long run therefore it's not something an investor should ponder about, so far the person go a stable income that would enable their investment journey go smoothly for very long period then the investor is good to go, it's as simple as that. Using the word early adoption (early stage) other than development stage is a very good point for people to understand that Bitcoin has already developed into something great since it's creation and it's currently at the early adaption period however the more people keeps buying and following it's concepts by holding for long-term then it becomes more scarce thereby causing the price to keep surging and doing greater in future.
It is NOT ONLY the investors that matter, since there are likely ongoing adoption and network effects taking place within at least the
7 categories that were contemplated by Trace Mayer, and surely even there might be more sophisticated and specific ways of considering bitcoin's adoption and network effects by looking within each of the 7 categories.