The thing is when he want to place a bet, he need to analyze everything so he will know how big the chance for him to pick the team that he thinks will win. He can choose betting against the public or betting following the public based on his analysis because his reason to place a bet is to win the match. Maybe he can choose betting against the public because he see the chance to win on that. But all in all, he must know about the risks when he pick one of those so he can prepare and accept whatever will happen later.
As far as I know, the collective mind is much more capable than the individual. Therefore, it would be quite reasonable to trust the public and place a bet on this basis. And why not? It is very rare that many people are wrong. Let's not look at individual examples now. There is no need for that here. Most likely, I will personally trust the public than analyze the events, of which there are many, on my own. This is a huge amount of information, which will take a lot of time.