Well, you have not even been in bitcoin for a whole cycle and you are considering yourself to be in a selling stage?..   You have ONLY been here for 3 years, so I have difficulties imagining that you would be in selling stage, unless you front loaded your investment.  Also you are using the term investment, but surely you seem to not really understand that you are describing how to manage your BTC holdings in terms of trading, especially if you are thinking that you are going to be able to buy back cheaper, which might not even be possible... but hey whatever, you do you in terms of what seems to be trading rather than investing, and hopefully you can either clarify or possibly even better stop referring to yourself as an investor, since you seem to be using the term wrong, especially when referring to bitcoin.  Good luck with your sales.. you likely are going to need it and you are merely gambling if you think that you are going to be able to buy back more bitcoin with such a selling strategy.


Yep.  Agbe seems to be living in a fantasy (possibly a dollar worshiping fantasy in which he cannot resist locking in his dollar profits), and it surely is possible that we will never see BTC prices below $70k ever again.. and bitcoin prices are not guaranteed to dip, even if they went up a lot.. so even sub $80k or sub $90k might not happen again... and sure the higher the price, the more likely the bitcoin price will drop below that, but it is far from guaranteed to be trying to sell BTC in0 order to buy back cheaper.


Seems premature to sell and presumptuous to believe that the BTC price will go down from here, but whatever, you can do what you like, even if it is a bit dumb.  And, sure, you are the one who has to live with the consequences of your choice - no matter what it is that you choose.


Hopefully you are not giving bad advice.  Surely waiting is not a very good investment strategy when it comes to bitcoin, especially for someone who does not have any and probably even for most people who don't have close than enough.. so on the face, it seems that you are giving bad advice and letting MSTR  and various big companies, governments and smarter people buy the bitcoin while you lead people to believe that waiting is a good investment strategy.  Your dumb advice is probably even doing a greater disservice to poor people since bitcoin is one of the best, if not the best investment out there that is accessible to anyone.. but instead you are advising them to wait.. Go figure?


Probably the risk of being a low coiner/no coiner is greater than buying BTC.. but whatever, you can believe whatever you like.. funny you are so dumb after nearly 3 years registered on the forum.


You must be misreading me if you have concluded that any kind of target that I have had in bitcoin would convert me from accumulating into bitcoin and then into trading it or selling it.

Sure, it is true that the more BTC that any of us get, then the more options that we end up having, which could include selling some of our BTC or it could also involve accumulating less or buying on dips rather than ongoing and consistent DCA buying of BTC.

Each of us has to figure out how we might transition from one angle of our bitcoin investment journey into another, and truly I would find it to be problematic to be suggesting that someone might accumulate $2 million in bitcoin, and then all of a sudden convert that into cash or some other kind of an asset, when bitcoin remains amongst the best, if not the best place to keep value, so why would someone want to spend 4-10 years or more. .. or even 20 years building up his bitcoin stash and then to sell it all when it reaches his target value.. that seems a bit rash.. and also erroneous, and also a kind of mistake that a lot of people make in their thinking when they cannot recognize and appreciate the difference between investing and trading., so why would we invest and then all of a sudden go into a trading mindset and fuck up all the BTC stash we had been building?  Does that make sense?

Surely the reason for describing a 4-10 year investment timeline or more is to attempt to be somewhat flexible in regards to accounting for minimum investment timelines, so someone planning to invest  in bitcoin should have at least 4 years,  and the ONLY reason that a 4 year investment timeline would be acceptable would be someone who has a short timeline for age and/or health kinds of considerations... not merely because they were wanting to trade on a longer timeline (sure a lot of traders will trade within a year or maybe within a few years, but you do not get out of the trading mindset and/or approach merely because your timeline happens to be 4 years).  

Also, imagine that most people do not tend to have very much savings or investments built up, so when they come to bitcoin, they may well be buying for at least 4 years just to build up their BTC stash, and so if they are investing $100 per week then it may well be the case that their earliest purchases are more in profits than their later purchases, yet at the same time during that whole 4-year period BTC prices had likely fluctuated quite a bit so they have purchases of BTC with a variety of costs and quantities spread out through the period, and even their purchases in the prior year or two had ONLY been within their BTC portfolio for a very short period of time, so with a proper investment mindset, those later BTC purchases would not even be eligible for any kind of sale until they met the minimum of at least 4 years of the timeline of being in the BTC portfolio.

Of course, guys can create whatever rules they want and manage their BTC holdings any way that they want, and they can also break their own rules or change their mind about what they are going to do, yet hopefully, people recognize that there is some value in regards to why some of us might have come to bitcoin and over time figured out that we want to have it as our long term investment that is likely going to give us more and more options down the road, such as 4-10 years or longer, yet we still have to figure out ways to customize not only our various ways of accumulating bitcoin during our earliest years of BTC accumulation, but also figure out what stages we are at during various points along the way that might involve tweaking some of our strategies to account that we might advance to later stages of accumulation and then maybe later advance to our maintenance stage and then later to our liquidation stage.. Yet in each of these stages, it would also seem short sighted to convert from an investor to a trader or a gamble, even though the larger our BTC stash, then the more options that we likely would have to divide up portions of our BTC stash and use the value of various parts of our BTC stash in different kinds of ways.. that could also allow for trading some of it.. or selling some of it on the way up.... or other kinds of sustainable withdrawal practices that might be based on price and/or based on time, yet it seems that any of us should want to get to a high enough level of BTC accumulation and even over-accumulation before starting to sell any of is or to engage in  sustainable withdrawal strategies, whether price-based and/or time-based.


For sure, it is fair that you are the one to assess your own quantity of BTC and how to manage it, so sometimes we might not know the details of other forum members, either how much BTC they had accumulated nor how long they had been accumulating it, unless they disclose some of those details, and many times we like to not necessarily disclose details of our exact BTC holdings, so frequently we will talk about BTC holdings in terms of hypotheticals that might still shed light on points that we might be trying to make... so yeah even with you, it could make a difference if you had been accumulating longer than your BTC forum registration date, or maybe if you engaged in various mixed kinds of BTC accumulation strategies at various points in time, and you could have started out whimpy and turned more aggressive, or maybe you started out more aggressive and then turned more whimpy.  Maybe you employed pure DCA or maybe you mixed in lump sum buying and buying on the dip.  Also you could have had changes in the way that you manage your cashflow that could have had contributed to the ways that you had been able to accumulate BTC.  We cannot necessarily know the places where guys might have had been successful in their BTC accumulation or where they might have had challenges and/or failures, unless they might describe some of those areas, and surely your current assertion @Agbe that you think this is a selling point in terms of where BTC is at seems quite superficial since BTC price performance is only one of the 9 individual factors that any of us should be considering.

By the way, a lot of folks getting worked up about the BTC price getting close to or crossing over $100k does not mean that it is even close to a place that any normie should be selling or holding off on buying.. so there are likely a lot of errors with the guys who are obsessed with these kinds of round numbers and think that they should be greatly modifying their BTC accumulation/maintenance approach around such hyped-up numbers.. which could end up contributing to their making wrong choices... but yeah, of course, each person has to decide for himself what to do, and it should be easier for someone who already has BTC to know what to do, yet it is also true that a guy's having BTC is not automatically going to lead him to a better decision than someone who does not.. even though it still is the case that an overwhelming majority of normies either don't have any BTC at all or they have way smaller amounts of BTC than they should have.. so whatever do what you like, if you think that it is smart to be selling your BTC that presumptively took you three hard-fought years to accumulate... and then turn yourself into a no coiner or a low coiner.. and surely there are a lot of those who are bitter when they sell too many too soon, but it might take several years for those who sell too many too soon to figure out their mistake.


I largely agree with your points Sim_card, yet there is likely going to be variation in terms of the timeline for guys and also guys who come to bitcoin with a lot of capital and are able to front load into bitcoin may well have quite different circumstances from someone who is brand new to bitcoin and brand new to investing in which traditionally it may well take a normal person 30-40 years to build up an investment portfolio, yet with bitcoin he is hoping to cut down the investment timeline to get to some financial strength kind of a place in terms of the value of the various holdings in his investment portfolio whether that is ONLY including bitcoin and cash or if he might have other assets and/or currencies and/or forms of income that come from the in his investment portfolio that he ends up building up over many years.

We need to be careful in regards to assuming too much about the circumstances of other guys, even though surely our presumptions would be correct that so many normies do not tend to have much savings/investments so frequently it can be a struggle that even takes a whole cycle or more for them to really get into the habit of saving/investing, building up better cashflow management practices and then start to put themselves into stronger financial (and thus psychological) circumstances... but it is still going to vary in regards to staring point, including some guys further along in their having their shit together as compared with others, and then some guys might also have good luck on their side and other guys have bad luck, or they make mistakes that might end up playing out in positive or negative ways for them... which affects their BTC investment journey and sometimes takes some guys out of the game when they are not employing good practices (which is also their choice - even though sometimes they might not realize the extent of some of their mistakes until several years later).


These are good points too, and surely it can be difficult for guys to really recognize and appreciate the value of just ongoingly buying BTC for at least a whole cycle or two just to get to a better place and then to reassess where they are at after a certain amount of ongoing and persistent buying of BTC... which may well be that their quantity of BTC and its value ends up giving a lot more options and informs the ways to possibly tweak any of their strategies... It can be really difficult to help anyone to help themselves because they end up getting into a less focused kind of mindset, and even the guy who had been accumulating bitcoin for nearly 3 years, even if he started at the top of the 2021 BTC price cycle would likely be in a decently good place right now, perhaps with an average cost per BTC around $30k-ish.. and so maybe they have not quite done two compoundings, yet.. but still there is some value that seems to come with staying focused and letting time work to our favors without getting caught up in the noise of trying to trade something that may or may not work and surely brings a lot less certainty than someone who continues to stack BTC.

And, even doing all of the right things is not guaranteed to pay off, which might be part of the reason that many of us are more likely to become more convicted in our conviction to invest in bitcoin when we consistently continue to buy it and we consistently continue to study it so that we might consider if their might be ways that we can supplement our BTC accumulation strategy in solid and good practice kinds of ways.


That is trading not investing, but you can call it what you like.  Hopefully others are not getting confused by your ways of defining things or even thinking that what you are doing is a good practice, even though sure it is possible that you might get lucky with your trade/gamble. We will see how it plays out for a guy with less than three years buying to sell everything at $100k and expecting to buy back $30k-ish.

Your numbers and your timeline is not even realistic and/or reasonable... but yeah, maybe you are happy with something like 3x to 5x profits depending on your entry price.. but you are not even taking profits, since you are expecting to be able to buy back lower.. .. think about 2025 being a bear market seems quite dumb.... if not retarded... especially for someone who supposedly had been studying BTC for 3-ish years...

Even considering your buy back target price of $30k-ish, sure it is possible that it could happen, but it may be less than 5% odds.. if we have a 200WMA that is currently at more than $41k and moving up at about $40 per day, and the 200-WMA would usually be considered the bottom for a bear market. .but may well not even get close to being touched during a bull market.. which means you would be lucky to get within 25% of the 200-WMA during a bull market, with any assumptions of the bull market ending merely because the BTC price is getting close to or reached $100k.. that seems a poor way of assessing what is the end of the bull market merely because you had a personal (and probably lame ass dumb) target that involved your fantasy about $100k having some kind of a meaningful significance.  It does not come off as a very learned approach (especially when it comes to something like bitcoin, which you seem to not understand even after having had been in it for nearly 3 years).


Of course, we cannot completely know what bitcoin is going to do, and even if we have some ideas about our abilities to continue to DCA, we cannot even be sure how effective our DCAs are going to be, yet it seems that we are likely going to have more and more options as we build our bitcoin holdings, and sure we might not even be done accumulating bitcoin for several cycles, yet, it seems to me that each cycle the amount of our BTC accumulation is likely going to inform us the extent to which we might want to or need to adjust our accumulation practices.


I have my doubts about whether it is a good idea to follow these degenerate fucks who are ongoingly buying with a kind of FOMO and sentiment of being too late.. but whatever they can do what they like and pump the bags of us who had been buying for a long time prior to them.

So sure there are some good feelings to having had front run a lot of rich people, institutions and governments who seem to just be starting to recognize and appreciate bitcoin.

And, yeah, if we have not gotten any bitcoin, then we have no choice but to buy now and to continue buying, and even if we might have spent one or two years accumulating bitcoin, we still likely have not spent enough time accumulating bitcoin unless maybe we were able to front-load our BTC investment, but even then if we bought a bunch of bitcoin in 2022, we still might have average costs per BTC of $20k to $30k...so we still might need to wait before we start to withdraw from it.. to the extent that we feel that we have enough, too.. so it can be difficult to determine how much anyone else might have, so each of us has to figure out those matters for ourselves, yet it seems historically settling for 2x to 5x profits will also tend to result in selling too much too soon.. and better practices to mostly continue to hold most of the BTC and perhaps only sell small parts until it has had the value of compounding in value over a cycle or two or perhaps more.. depending on how these future cycles play out and the extent to which they might play out flatter than previous cycles.


Agbe seems to have had mis-described some of the ideas that I have in regards to why any of us might create target prices for ourselves and then what we might do as a result of reaching our target prices, and surely I have never proclaimed that reaching a target price means selling all or most of our BTC, yet reaching a target level of BTC accumulation could inform any of us regarding if we might tweak our strategies, whether accumulation strategies or other aspects of dealing with our BTC maintenance or other aspects of our cashflow management, including considering if we might want to make adjustments to the kinds of assets that we are invested into.. to the extent that we might not have already been going beyond bitcoin and cash.

Even though spot BTC price is going to be a factor for any bitcoin that we might buy or sell at any given time, I have frequently been motivated by valuation of BTC holdings based on the 200-WMA, which seems to be a way of attempting to measure bottom prices, but also allowing any of us to consider the extent to which we have reached enough BTC when we are valuating our BTC as compared with any other assets or currencies that we might hold, including if we might consider if some kind of a sustainable withdrawal based on price or based on time might be justifiable. .and also sometimes we can get into variations of our own management of our BTC holdings based on our assessments about whether we have enough or more than enough BTC...so yeah, any selling that I suggest to be prudent is not with any assumption or presumption of being able to buy back cheaper (even if the BTC price might end up dropping and then contributing to our buying BTC back, from my perspective, the selling of BTC should not be done with a goal of buying back cheaper, but instead as a means to manage our BTC holdings, and perhaps provide downside insurance... and yeah, maybe even my own practices are not really that great of an idea, since people confuse them for trading and also start to employ them way before they have reached reasonably high levels of over-accumulation.. Many folks seem to come to a conclusion to assess that they have reached a status of over-accumulation of their BTC way too early (way prior to actually having had reached such status).