I never claim to know these kinds of things... because frequently if there are a lot of sales walls at a certain price point, such as $100k, then once the price goes above it, then it could go 15% to 25% or more before it takes a break.

But the 200-WMA is still at $41k, but if the BTC spot price moves up faster then the 200-WMA moves up faster too... so the 200-WMA is usually considered the bottom price, so on bull runs (or bullish periods), the BTC price does not tend to drop within 25% of the 200-WMA, absent some unusual dip situations, and even in the bear market the 200-WMA is not usually breached, but it still can be sometimes.

I had loosely made a prediction that the BTC spot price would not get within 25% of the 200-WMA prior to the end of 2025, and that the BTC ATH price will be higher in 2025 than it is in 2024.   I don't really claim to know specifics beyond that....

Sure maybe we could proclaim that if the BTC spot price goes above $400k (this cycle or whatever), then it becomes much more difficult for it to return to sub-$100k, because $100k would be a 75% correction from $400k.

I know that the numbers seem outrageous, but I would not be prepared to say that the BTC price will never go below a certain point, unless there is some cushion or we might be working with measuring from the 200-WMA or some other parameters, then I might be willing to bet on it once a sufficient enough cushion has been established.

We do have a lot of upward momentum right now, so we likely could proclaim that something like $55k will never be breached again... at least with a certain level of confidence that we might be willing to bet on it.. and perhaps giving some kind of a 1 year or 2 year timeline for the bet.