Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

Quote from: Branko on Today at 01:44:42 PM

Quote from: paxmao on Today at 12:50:29 PM

It does not add anything. Nobody assumes that 100% of the Ruzzian nuclear arsenal will not work or that it would not reach European cities, that is just food for idiots. Just as it is idiotic to think that the West does not hold an equivalent power.

Branko, you have been saying that UK nuclear weapons do not work for like 10 posts? The answer is not going to change: UK has submarine based nuclear weapons. These are made in the US, they are Trident missiles but if you want the full argument...

1. It is of the outmost desperation to hope that UK weapons will not work when needed (based on tests that failed - tests, not real use). But you also have the French (290 warheads, intercontinental and submarine based - well tested) and well... the US. Particualrly when you are experiencing the Stormshadows every day.

2. It is of the outmost desperation to hope that there would be no NATO response. And it would not be a nuclear response, because NATO can cause an equivalent level of devastation with conventional weapons (not my word, "devastation".

3. There is no way the West can back up from action based on a nuclear threat for two reasons: (a) Ruzzia would have carte blanche for further invasions and (b) the West does have the capability to strike back. There is no reasonable doubt about it.

4. Escalation occurs when there is something to win from it. Ruzzia has little to win by escalating to nuclear weapons, but has a lot to lose from it, hence, Putin has not escalated because he is a Mafia leader, but not completely stupid.

So your argument here is: "hey guys, lets keep pushing until Putin has it enough and uses nukes"?
Are you saying that Kennedy was idiot, or Khruschev was weakling?

Nope, Khruschev and Kennedy reach a deal. Khruschev showed Kennedy that the USSR was willing to install ballistic missiles in close proximity to the US, to the point that the response would need to be automatic. Kennedy pointed out that it was not acceptable to the US and the USSR stopped. Then... quietly but by clear agreement, the US withdrew other nuclear assets that were also in close proximity to the USSR. They simply understood each other's position and they both recognised the other as being in a strong position.

This last bit is the most important: both recognise that the other had an equivalent power and that is why using the nuclear threat makes little sense. Both recognise in the other a strong adversary that can cause lots of problems if provoked.

So, no matter what Europe does, the nukes will not disappear. So obviously it is much better to do now what needs to be done now than at the Gates of Brandenburg and if Putin threatens... well, so be it, he knows the consequences of doing anything more than threatening.

I guess you would need to see the view of your adversary to understand, but you may not be able to.