Post
Topic
Board Project Development
Re: [WHITEPAPER] Decentralized Bitcoin Prediction Markets
by
tonyk
on 30/04/2014, 17:58:27 UTC
Read the white paper! (several times) 
Great Idea! Well almost…

Let me get some things straight.
So the owners/voters try to guess what the others vote will be, and not what the actual outcome would be! Their incentive is vote with the majority not to guess correctly! If they want to gain by correctly predicting the outcome they must become traders! I.e. bet correctly not vote for the correct outcome.

The consequence of this is that their voting (as a whole, as a group) is completely unrelated to how well the market their supposed to care about performs. If they (as a majority) always get the prediction correctly or they are always wrong the actual (trading) market will perform as it wants- i.e. successfully or unsuccessfully based on totally unrelated factors (advertising, competition, fees etc.) factors pertaining to the trading market itself.
Which leads to the logical question – Why they are needed at all?
I have more points but let’s see if you will answer  this one first.