Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Do you understand why MicroStrategy's market cap is larger than BTC holdings?
by
cr1776
on 27/11/2024, 17:36:17 UTC
It also helps to understand that if they can issue debt and shares to buy $42 billion (1/2 each) in bitcoin over the next 3 years that would buy ALL of the new supply of bitcoin for about 18 months at current prices - which is what they announced just before Halloween this year (2024).  If they can issue debt to buy $100 billion or something after that they are essentially sopping up a huge amount of the new supply so there is very little for anyone else except from current owners.  Either more people will sell or the price will have to go up until they wish to do so.

It almost becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy if their purchases can really impact the market this much and they have.  As long as demand continues both from them and elsewhere this can continue. 

As far as buying MSTR, it certainly has had a great run and if they can take 70% of the profits from the bonds then that could explain why people are willing to pay a premium.


Here is how to explain MSTR right now.

Imagine you have a friend who has a relationship with a bank and can borrow money on margin. You give him $1000, and he can borrow $5000, using the $1000 as a down payment.

Now your friend buys Bitcoin with the $5000, which he pledges as collateral for the loan with the bank: if Bitcoin goes down by 20%, the bank forecloses and you both lose everything since the bank would be underwater if they didn't collect.

Now imagine the deal with your friend was this: if Bitcoin goes up, and the investment profits, then you only get 30% of the profit and your friend gets 70%.

MSTR at a ~300% premium over their actual BTC holding last I checked, so the above is basically what is going on here.

I get wanting to buy Bitcoin on margin (super risky, high reward), but essentially giving MSTR a 3x premium for just doing it for you is pretty silly. If you want to buy BTC on margin, then... buy BTC on margin and keep 100% of the profits, not 30%.