Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
Dump3er
on 30/11/2024, 02:53:44 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
-

As long as various monies exist then the less valuable will be spent first, and sure it could take 50-200 years or longer before all monetary value gravitates into bitcoin.  Houses, food, cars etc still have utility value, but their monetary value may well end up getting sucked away by bitcoin being a more efficient monetary instrument, yet you are correct, there still may be some utility in the use of other kinds of monies or tokens.

The bitcoin topic is so incredibly interesting because it has already had its twists and turns that some of the self-proclaimed smartest minds have been wrong about bitcoin's evolution and its powerful resilience and octopus-like ability to spread within society. The pace varies at times, but it is continuing to grow and spread.

I think you are are giving a good ballpark with those 50-200 years because the point at which bitcoin maybe at some sort of equilibrium to the world's total wealth, global population size, relative size to other asset classes... I notice this is tough to think about. It is hard to grasp and imagine at what point bitcoin could function as a daily currency and whether it will ever. Gold could only do so regionally in the distant past because of its lack of mobility or essentially transaction speed. Bitcoin doesn't have that problem. If I want to make an international deal, using gold is barely possible. Maybe certificates or something, but not the real thing.

If global wealth will continue to grow, and I don't know whether it will because I can't judge how AI and automation will affect global wealth over future decades to come, bitcoin would probably continue to capture a large portion of that value added. If at the same time population continues to grow, more people are out there, meaning potentially more people understanding that they should own some bitcoin. But maybe economic growth comes to an end, but then in times of recession or stagnation, people might still consider bitcoin the safest place and invest in it. Or they will be forced to sell off some in order to meet other needs.

It's impossible to come up with a plausible idea as to what is going to happen and how it will play out in two decades from now. But this rough idea that all monetary value gravitates into bitcoin in 50 - 200 years does make some abstract sense as bitcoin meets a dozen criteria to be good money which gold (or any other asset) doesn't meet.