Your perspective is well articulated, and the analogy with poker is particularly apt for understanding sports betting dynamics. Betting success indeed relies on having an analytical edge over the collective opinion of other players, much like choosing weaker opponents in poker to maximize your chances of winning.

The role of the bookmaker is often misunderstood. As the quote explains, their primary function is not to predict the outcome but to balance opinions and money flow, ensuring they minimize their own risk. In this sense, they act as brokers, merely facilitating the wagers rather than being the opponent. Their commission, while reducing overall player winnings, is the cost of using their platform, much like transaction fees in financial markets.

To gain a consistent edge, it's essential to focus on better analysis, deeper insights, and identifying inefficiencies in public perception. Just as in poker, success often comes down to preparation, patience, and knowing when and where to place your bets. By treating sports betting as a strategic game against other bettors rather than a gamble against the bookmaker, you can develop a more sustainable and informed approach.