We could have several years of portfolios ending up in the negative, so bitcoin is not guaranteed to go up, even though right now it seems that there is quite a bit of upwards momentum... yet personally, I doubt that the strategy for any bitcoin newbie should change, and it seem to me that any newbie should be considering to put plans in place to buy as much bitcoin that he can for at least a whole cycle, and then perhaps reassess after that... and surely some folks will get distracted by price, and it can be quite difficult to figure out price, and from my own perspective price may not matter that much to a newbie, especially if he is largely just drawing a certain percent of his regular income. 

Surely if a newbie has large opportunities to front load bitcoin by lump sum investing or other ways of front loading, then he might get himself in a position to adjust his strategy sooner than 4 years, otherwise, it seems that newbies should largely just be attempting to accumulate BTC through ongoing, persistent, consistent and perhaps aggressive buying for a whole cycle.. and then reassess thereafter.  Everyone is responsible for his own decisions and actions, and even failing/refusing to invest is a decision/action.