It's basically like a gambling fallacy where they believe that what they're doing is right and that when they do it consistently, it will give them a win. This kind of thinking is what makes many gamblers become big losers, because their beliefs and emotions make them not think logically, and it will directly affect their lives whether it is financial problems, addiction, or excessive stress due to losses and their goals that are not achieved no matter how hard they try.
I can't find anything constant in gambling, there is no single formula that would work equally well for different bets. But I have determined by trial and error that it works well for me to bet on the total of the team that is actively attacking but cannot score plus minutes before the 30th minute of the match, then the odds on its individual total of more than 1 goal become higher, in different ways 1.5 - 1.6 and it seems to me a good passing bet.