For most of us who are holding coins outside of centralized exchanges, is it sound to transfer the coins to exchanges now or in spring 2025?
The reasoning behind my question is, right now the prices might have gone up relative to the past two years, but if the cycle continues and prices pump by mid next year, at that point, if we transfer the coins to exchanges, wouldn't those transfers incur more fees than if we transfer now when the prices hopefully are cheaper relative to mid next year?
For instance, if I have 1,000 BTC (one can dream, can't it?) and transfer all to CEX abc, and the network fees is 0.5% in Dec 2024, that translates to 1,000 x $100,000 x 0.5% = $500,000, as opposed as to, say, Nov 2025 when the price had gone up to $200,000, and the network congestion can drive the fees higher, where the same transfer might cost the user 1,000 x $200,000 x 0.8% = $1,600,00.
Of course, I'm talking about transferring to "safer", well known, long running CEXes, and not any run of the mill/"come-let-me-scam-you" CEX. My lean on this idea is that, even if these large CEXes, such as Coinbase, end up failing, it won't happen during the crypto season such as 2021 or 2017. If anything, they'd start failing a year after that (2026) -- long after the cold hard cash has been withdrawn.
Fees change so much daily that if you want to send them later on, you are better off just waiting for a moment that fees are down. There's no way no one would know in terms of fees, which option is cheaper. The reasoning behind my question is, right now the prices might have gone up relative to the past two years, but if the cycle continues and prices pump by mid next year, at that point, if we transfer the coins to exchanges, wouldn't those transfers incur more fees than if we transfer now when the prices hopefully are cheaper relative to mid next year?
For instance, if I have 1,000 BTC (one can dream, can't it?) and transfer all to CEX abc, and the network fees is 0.5% in Dec 2024, that translates to 1,000 x $100,000 x 0.5% = $500,000, as opposed as to, say, Nov 2025 when the price had gone up to $200,000, and the network congestion can drive the fees higher, where the same transfer might cost the user 1,000 x $200,000 x 0.8% = $1,600,00.
Of course, I'm talking about transferring to "safer", well known, long running CEXes, and not any run of the mill/"come-let-me-scam-you" CEX. My lean on this idea is that, even if these large CEXes, such as Coinbase, end up failing, it won't happen during the crypto season such as 2021 or 2017. If anything, they'd start failing a year after that (2026) -- long after the cold hard cash has been withdrawn.
But talking about safety: if exchanges like coinbase would end up failing, i am pretty sure that those fees don't matter any more. Because places as legit as coinbase failing, would mean that something horrible has happened and value of that btc would be tanked overnight so much, and that point selling it would be just covering your losses.