For most of us who are holding coins outside of centralized exchanges, is it sound to transfer the coins to exchanges now or in spring 2025?
The reasoning behind my question is, right now the prices might have gone up relative to the past two years, but if the cycle continues and prices pump by mid next year, at that point, if we transfer the coins to exchanges, wouldn't those transfers incur more fees than if we transfer now when the prices hopefully are cheaper relative to mid next year?
For instance, if I have 1,000 BTC (one can dream, can't it?) and transfer all to CEX abc, and the network fees is 0.5% in Dec 2024, that translates to 1,000 x $100,000 x 0.5% = $500,000, as opposed as to, say, Nov 2025 when the price had gone up to $200,000, and the network congestion can drive the fees higher, where the same transfer might cost the user 1,000 x $200,000 x 0.8% = $1,600,00.
Of course, I'm talking about transferring to "safer", well known, long running CEXes, and not any run of the mill/"come-let-me-scam-you" CEX. My lean on this idea is that, even if these large CEXes, such as Coinbase, end up failing, it won't happen during the crypto season such as 2021 or 2017. If anything, they'd start failing a year after that (2026) -- long after the cold hard cash has been withdrawn.
If you are making up some direct transfers from your non-custodial wallet into those exchange platform then the fee will always vary on the network condition and since we are talking about Bitcoin then you can check out anytime on mempool.space, as long it isnt clogged or having those spam in the network then you can transfer up even multi millions of USD value of bitcoin with having that less than a dollar fee amount and that what makes crypto to be the best on making up some transfers on different location with having that very minimal or almost free kind of fee which is totally opposite on what we do have in bank transfers and other traditional methods or ways.
In regarding about passing it up then it will be wise that you shouldnt be that parking out those coins into exchangers on which potential hack and issues can raise or happen anytime and if it happens that you do make these CEX to be your main wallet then recovery of those funds will really be that hard just in case if it happens. We do always have that common saying "Not your keys, Not your coins" .. Always stick into this principle then you will really be just that fine. If we do speak or talks about long term holds or accumulation then nothing beats out with non custodial wallet like Electrum on which this is im trusting up all over the years.