⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
[edited out]
Yes, I remember in 2017, wherein there was a lot of comparison between gold and BTC, it's the question of "If" BTC's market cap could catch up with gold. Now it's very different, it's now the question of "when"... maybe in the next 10 years?And if we look at the numbers, in the last 10 years, BTC market cap has gone like 160-170% if I'm not mistaken, while Gold in the same time frame likes double their market cap. So with that, it's just a matter of time before we can surpass Gold, specially if they remain stagnant or at least the growth is slow as compare to BTC. Most likely if we hit $700k per pop, by that price, we might be close or even overtake Gold in terms of marketcap.
We also have to take into consideration how "easy" it is for average Joe investors to acquire BTC as compare to Gold.
Of course, there will be variance, as the price will go down during the bear market. But still, when bull run starts it's hard to stop the herd from running and reaching another all time high very 4 years.
Sure there is a law of large numbers which potentially causes some slowing down of bitcoin in terms of its percentage growth, yet BTC reaching market cap parity with gold could happen as soon as within this next calendar year or it could take another whole cycle or longer. I doubt that it is going to take 10 years for bitcoin's market cap to touch upon parity with gold's marketcap, but sure, anything is possible.
Regarding ease of access, I would speculate that bitcoin is easier to get than gold, even though sure there are some parts of the world (in various countries) where physical gold markets exist.
As bitcoin is adopted on greater levels, it will probably become more and more easy to get bitcoin, even though so many folks are still failing/refusing to hold bitcoin in their own self-custody, so we should expect self-custody abilities will continue to improve, even though surely there are many governments and financial institutions who are working to vilify self-custody, which in the end, bitcoin's actual power and value comes from its ability to be self-custodied.
Yes, sooner or later the law of large numbers will caught up with us, causing a slow down in growth. But the advantage of Bitcoin is that we have this "Halving", making it more scarce that gold overtime. My math might be off though, as I look that gold could be around $17 trillion - 18 trillion in market cap as of this year. So that is big numbers for Bitcoin to overcome, as we currently sits at around $2 trillion. But in any case that we double the current price of $100k, and see all time high of around $200k, then we might see our market cap exploding to a huge number of $4 trillion. And with Gold market cap slowing down to let's say in the next cycle or at least in the next 4 years. And then we in the next 5th halving in 2028, and this is just my speculation, seeing around $400k-$500k as the top price, we could be around $16 trillion - $20 trillion in just one cycle alone. So yeah, it might not take 10 years. And it looks like this is going to be a silent war in the future as who's nation going to have the biggest reserved of Bitcoin, as US and Russia might go on a race again.
As for the ease, I don't know, the first thing that comes to my mind when we say gold, is simply owning gold jewelries. And I must admit that I have invested on them since 2000's buying bracelets and necklaces. And during times that I need a quick money, I just go to the nearest shop and have them pawn so I will say that it save me during times of trouble. I still do as of this day, have some in my closest. But definitely, I have move to Bitcoin as my main investment. Maybe I have the wrong mindset about how easy it is to own gold and not necessarily "gold bar".
