You go with what works for you; those who watch almost every match in each season, some of them don't waste time in running research about previous matches again as they watch both team performance before either last season or just in a concluded match; they can make their prediction from there.
Some people are just like your friend; even after spending hours and days making your research on your game option, sometimes your prediction comes out wrong, while the next player who just spent a few minutes selecting random matches ends up winning. It's just all about luck sometimes, but the research just helps increase your chance of winning.
Great teams and always matched to a great team as well for which there will always be an upset to the expected winner. Having good research though lessens the chance of a bettor losing their money blindly.
But you can never see the time when an upset happens like the Surace vs Mungia fight where an underdog who got knockdown in the previous round won in an unexpected way. No amount off research can help you in predicting how it turns out.